Note from dshort: With yesterday’s release of the Consumer Price Index for October, I’ve updated Real Retail Sales for October. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to…
The price of oil and of gold are daily fodder for the financial media. Lately, minute-by-minute fluctuations in the value of the commodities have been followed breathlessly by pundits and punters, looking for either prophesy or profit. But pull back a little. There’s a relationship between gold and oil that’s worth understanding because each, being…
Economics is full of ideas for fiscal & monetary policies. But these policies are Top-down approaches. They work through investment and the financial system. Yes, China lowers its benchmark rate from 6.0% to 5.6%, but China is supporting a failing policy of over-investment. Debt rises… and non-performing loans are increasing. Yes, Draghi wants to do…
The latest petroleum status report has been released by the Energy Information Administration and it shows the continuation of many of the same trends that I have reported on previously in this column. Despite the media hype to the contrary, the balance between the supply of oil and the demand for it is actually tighter…
Written by Gary Volatility predictions were not to be seen this morning as the averages slowly melted downward off the opening highs. The trading rage has been in a tight, controlled and even decent all morning with volume remaining in the ‘low’ category. By noon there have been more red spikes of volume than green again…
For months I highlighted that the low valuations in the junior resource space will attract large miners especially in the platinum and palladium (PGM) space which has a huge supply demand imbalance. This past week Antofagasta offered $.45 per share for junior miner Duluth Metals Twin Metals Ni-PGM deposit in Minnesota. The Twin Metals Deposit is similar…
Perhaps as long as China is cutting rates and Europe is buying asset-backed securities – and as long as the U.S. maintains its policy of zero percent interest rates – investors can ignore traditional risk in stock assets. Then again, contrarian assessments suggest that participants are closing in on euphoric extremes and credit spreads are…
Apparently Senator Levin is not expecting many $250,000 speaking engagements from Wall Street after he leaves the Senate. The Wall Street Banks have NO business using their subsidized banking funds and deposits to speculate in global markets for their own accounts. This was the basic safeguard provided by Glass-Steagall for almost sixty years that was overturned…
Negative Interest Rates and Capital Consumption Ever since the ECB has introduced negative interest rates on its deposit facility, people have been waiting for commercial banks to react. After all, they are effectively losing money as a result of this bizarre directive, on excess reserves the accumulation of which they can do very little about….
Of the three regional manufacturing surveys released to date for November, all show manufacturing expansion. The market was expecting a range between 4 to 7 (consensus 6) versus the actual at 7. A positive number indicates expansion. GROWTH IN TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY EXPANDED FURTHER The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the November…
