If one ignores all traditional, staple indicators of a growing economy, such as stable (not plummeting) crude demand, stable (not plummeting) holiday spending and stable (not plummeting) McDonalds (MCD) comp store sales, then indeed the U.S. economy has “decoupled” from the rest of the world, and those who wish to demonstrate the same intellectual capacity…
Barry Ritholtz has had some good fun torching Tony Robbin’s All Weather Portfolio for having too much in bonds and commodities as well as being to backward looking and being put forth as a one size fits all. The latest was in his WaPo column dated December 5, 2014. He proceeded to offer his All…
Falling gas prices add to holiday cheer, but those are not an unvarnished good for the U.S. economy—thanks to bad economic policy. Oil selling at about $65 a barrel oil prices gives consumers and many businesses a lot of additional buying power, but it also puts a damper on the U.S. oil and gas boom….
Among various other reasons, the oil crash probably traumatized the global economy the most in the second half of this year. Sluggish demand thanks to a soft macroeconomic backdrop in some developed regions including the Euro zone and China, booming oil production resulting in abundant supply, price war induced by OPEC nations and a strengthening…
It’s the time of the year to reflect on the direction of the economy. For the past several years I have examined each individual component of The Conference Board’s Lagging, Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators and created my own diffusion index by ranking each indicator -1, 0 or +1. I have found that this method produces accurate forecasts…
The U.S. economic trend remains positive and stable after recovering from October’s sharp but brief stumble, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at +8.5% on Friday (Dec. 5). The index is near the level that prevailed just ahead of its mid-October tumble. The benchmark’s persistence above zero…
Written by Andrew Butter There is an increasing adjustment to the idea that the “totally unexpected” slump in oil prices to below $70 may prevail for some time. The model that predicted since 2011 Brent would, at some point, bottom at $67 which is just 3% below where it reached yesterday (not bad for a prediction…
Over dinner last night with friends, my husband told a joke about Kim Kardashian and Paris Hilton (or whomever you want to designate as fact-challenged individuals). The hotel heiress asks “Which is closer to us – Florida or the moon?” The reality star replies – “Hello, can you see Florida from here?” Unfortunately, this type of silliness has reared its…
Fraud generates risk, and risk eventually breaks out in the “safest” parts of the financial plumbing, the ones nobody gives a second thought to because they’re “low risk.” Let’s go all the way back to the last time a central banker actually spoke the truth in public: December 5, 1996, 18 long years ago. It was…
