OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.23%) this morning are up +0.17% and European stocks are unchanged after falling back from a 2-1/4 month high as China led a rally in emerging markets on speculation a slowdown in growth will prod China into expanding stimulus. The Russian ruble held near a record low against…
We closed above the 1217 level suggesting we will press a bit higher. We now need a closing above 1220 to signal a rally is possible up to the 1255 to 1275 area. We need a year-end closing above 1310 to shift gold into a neutral position. A number of emails have poured in asking…
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to fall in November. GMI, an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes, is currently expected to earn an annualized 3.9% over the “risk-free” rate for the long term (for details on the methodology, see summary below). Today’s forecast is slightly below last month’s 4.0%…
EUR/USD Signal Update Yesterday’s signal to go short after a bearish rejection of the 1.2503 level was triggered. Look to protect profit or take partial profits at the first short-term bullish candlestick after the price reaches 1.2420. Levels at 1.2405 and 1.2360 make realistic near-term targets. Today’s EUR/USD Signals Risk 0.75% All trades must be entered…
Jamil Anderlini, writing in the Financial Times, brought our attention to some Chinese government research about the debt in China and how it has been used for investment in that country. See China has ‘wasted’ $6.8tn in investment, warn Beijing researchers. Looking deeper into the subject, including looking at the paper Anderlini reported on (Inefficient and ineffective…
Once again the cyclical patterns in US macro data are re-emerging as extrapolated hopes fade into mean-reverting credit-impulse-hangover-driven realities. Despite all the hopes and dreams of escape velocity, cleanest-dirty-shirt-wearing economic enthusiasts, year-to-date performance of Citi’s US Macro Surprise index is at its lowest level since 2008. The worst performing US Macro data since 2008… Whether this…
I am going to visit Moscow next week. I was invited by the Moscow State Institute of International Relations to speak on strategic analysis, their term for what Stratfor calls strategic forecasting. Going to Moscow would give me pause under any circumstances. I am a product of the Cold War, and for me, at some…
The ISM Manufacturing survey continues to indicate manufacturing growth expansion with an insignificant decrease in the rate of growth. This survey should be considered good news as it reconfirms a rather strong report last month. Key internals improved. The ISM Manufacturing survey index (PMI) declined from 59.0 to 58.7 (50 separates manufacturing contraction and expansion). This was…
All the analysts chortling over the “equivalent of a tax break” for consumers are about to be buried by an avalanche of defaults and crushing losses as the chickens of financializing oil come home to roost. The pundits crowing about the stimulus effect of lower oil prices on consumers are missing the real story, which…
High Flier Tech Stocks Take A Breather NASDAQ Off 1.34% To 4727 Don’t blame the consumer and retail sales for the sell-off. Investors have done very well this year with simple indexing. The SPY SPDR S&P 500 is up 11.4% YTD, the FBT First Trust Biotechnology Index is up 45.7% YTD and the XLK SPDR Technology Index is up 17.5% YTD. Who needs stock…
