The non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) year-over-year rate of home price growth was 5.0% (again statistically unchanged from last month). The authors of the index say: “An interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, now expected in December by many analysts, is not likely to derail the strong housing performance“. 20 city unadjusted home…
Several weeks ago I suggested that we had seen the “Mark of the Bear” stating: “The Bulls have remained firmly in charge of the markets as the reach for returns exceeded the grasp of the underlying risk. It now seems that has changed. For the first time since 2007, as we see initial markings of a potential bear market cycle.”…
Tere’s increased scuttlebutt that derivative trades are blowing up, and that counter parties are failing. There’s a blow out in Corporate CDS sector in general. The suspects involved a range of players, from Deutsche Bank (likely), to commodity kingpin Glencore. Until the tide goes out completely, we won’t really know. On the issue of commodities,…
Two developments make a shutdown of the US government on October 1 less likely. First, the outgoing Speaker of the House made it clear he is determined to avoid the government shutdown, and with his resignation (as of the end of October), he is freed from some of the political constraints. Second, the US Senate…
Equities fall on commodity prices. Risk aversion is back Today’s Economic Data: German import prices m/m -1.5% vs. -1.4% Spain flash CPI y/y -0.9% vs. -0.6% German flash CPI m/m -0.2% vs. -0.1%; CPI y/y 0.0% vs. 0.1% UK M4 Money Supply m/m -0.4% vs. 0.7% UK Mortgage approvals 71k vs. 70k UK CBI Realized…
After its biggest daily crash in history on concerns Glencore’s (or Glenron as it has been called recently) equity is worthless unless commodities stage a dramatic rebound (a crash which together with the plunge in Volkswagen has cost the Qatar sovereign wealth fund $12 billion in paper losses), the company’s awestruck sellside following – the vast…
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 172,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s September update of the ADP Employment Report vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a modestly lower gain vs. the advance in August. Two estimates based…
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 172,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s September update of the ADP Employment Report vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a modestly lower gain vs. the advance in August. Two estimates based…
In its fourth cut since the beginning of the year, India’s central bank cut interest rates by a more-than-expected 50 basis points. The Reserve Bank of India reduced its key repo rate to 6.75%, more than market expectations of 7%. The repo rate is the level at which the central bank lends to commercial banks….
Click on picture to enlarge The S&P 500 is down around 10% in the past two months. This decline has made the word “correction” very popular recently. This chart looks at the S&P 500 over the past decade. Coming off the 2009 lows, the S&P 500 has remained inside of rising channel (A), for…
