Our long term S&P 500 model states that the U.S. stock market is not in a bear market. We define “bear markets” as declines that exceed 33.33% and last more than 1 year. Our medium term S&P 500 model has been predicting a significant S&P 500 correction since the end of March 2015. We define a significant correction as either…
James Treacy, former chief operating officer of recruitment services giant Monster Worldwide Inc. (MWW) (AP Photo/ Louis Lanzano) I first met Jim Treacy last year through a trusted client and friend Vikki Ziegler. Within the first 20 minutes of knowing Jim we became fast friends. Jim was forthright, intelligent, and warm. He had a humility…
Well, October has sucked out loud for me so far. Equities and commodities are surging (just as DG predicted………incredible!). Not to hang my hopes on too thin a reed, but I at least wanted to point out that the commodity ETF, symbol DBC, is at the top of its two-month range at a level that,…
China’s markets have been closed since the end of September and re-open tomorrow. It is interesting to note what has happened in the global capital markets in the interim. The US dollar has fallen against all the major currencies, but the Japanese yen, which is off about 0.2%. Major equity markets are 3%-5% higher….
SPX: Long-term trend – Bull Market? Intermediate trend – SPX is in the midst of an intermediate correction (at least). Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market…
If it wasn’t already obvious, two updates this week warn that a slowdown in global economic growth is underway. It’s still debatable if the weaker trend will continue and unleash a new worldwide recession. The US economy is certainly vulnerable, but it’s premature to say that an NBER-defined contraction is fate for the world’s biggest…
There are two ways of looking at the NYSE short interest, which as of September 15 surged by 1.4 billion to 18.4 billion shares or just shy of the level hit on July 31, 2008: Either a central bank intervenes, or a massive forced buying event occurs, and unleashes the mother of all short squeezes,…
The current economic mess in the developed world is easy to explain and hard to fix. This is a demand-driven downturn, where aging populations choose to save more of what they earn, take on less debt, and generally rotate to a risk-averse world view. The change isn’t new. It happens to almost all of us…
By some measures, 2015 hasn’t been a total disaster. Through the first three quarters of this year, S&P 500 (SPY) constituents are only down an average of 6.2% on a total return basis (dividends reinvested). The average stock in the Russell 2000 (IWM), an index of small caps, is down 7.0%. That’s still not…
One of the largest trade deals for many a year has been agreed between Pacific nations at governmental level, however, before it comes into force it may have a tricky passage through some parliaments. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has been agreed by the governments of twelve Pacific nations and includes Japan, Australia, New Zealand, USA…
