Yesterday my market risk indicator moved back to positive territory. It’s looking like price above 1975 on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is roughly the level where the risk indicator clears so you can use that level for planning during the week. If the readings can hold into Friday it will clear the current market…
Tail Chase In the wake of recent economic data, economists at the IMF and Deutsche Bank lowered their growth estimates. IMF Cuts Forecast Again Like a dog running in futile circles hoping to catch its tail, the IMF does the same thing with its perennially over-optimistic assessment of everything from emerging markets to the G7…
Presidential candidate and Democratic party front-runner Hillary Clinton’s comments on the prohibitive costs of certain medications have recently drawn much attention. Most of these exorbitant prices have been attributed to new launches or sudden price hikes. However, a new study by the Wall Street Journal shows that higher revenue generated by pharma companies is primarily attributable to…
TROW has raised its dividend each year for more than 25 consecutive years, qualifying it as one of the 52 dividend aristocrats. The stock has sold off with the market over the last six months, shedding more than 10%. While the stock is sensitive to the market’s near-term gyrations, TROW’s dividend is extremely safe and appears…
Yesterday, I mentioned the likelihood that a recession is coming. The indicators for this are mostly from the manufacturing side of the economic ledger, and they are at this point merely suggestive. For example, the ISM Manufacturing Index is at 50.2, below which level we often see deeper downdrafts (see chart, source Bloomberg). Capacity…
Thanks to Professor Anthony Sanders for the kind mention in his post about the US Treasury Kabuki Theater. This is an issue that is so crucial to our understanding of markets that I have been covering it in depth every week for the past 13 years. I jotted down a few thoughts in response to his post and a few…
The recent scare that investors may be slowly (or not so slowly) waning in the primary market for US Treasurys is rapidly becoming a distant memory, and after yesterday’s 3 Month bills pricing at 0.000% for the first time ever, today’s strong 3 Year auction should end any debate, if only for the time being,…
SPX has popped to resistance at the top of a ‘W’ pattern and halted there. This is a valid termination point. The chart however, has higher levels where the bounce, which was anticipated since before the Tinder Box post, can terminate. The 2000 area, 2040 and a measurement of the ‘W’ to around 2120 are the next…
Photo Credit: Mike Mozart YUM! Brands Inc. (YUM) is set to report third quarter earnings today after the closing bell. Wall Street Analysts are calling for EPS of $1.08 and revenue of $3.71 Billion while the Estimize Consensus is expecting EPS of $1.09 and revenue of $3.72 Billion. What China means for YUM! YUM! Brands, home to…
Today the US Commerce department report on International Trade in Goods and Services shows the trade deficit rose by $6.6 billion to $48.3 billion. The numbers are for August, very backwards-looking given it is now October. August exports were $185.1 billion, $3.7 billion less than July exports. August imports were $233.4 billion, $2.8 billion more than July…
