U.S. gasoline prices averaged $3.31 a gallon over December 2013 to February 2014 but only $2.31 a gallon over December 2014 to February 2015. How did consumers respond to this windfall in their spending power? A new study by the JP Morgan Chase Institute has come up with some interesting answers. Rather than trying to draw conclusions…
Despite a moderate recovery in the U.S. economy, investors are skeptical due to global growth worries that have been haunting the markets lately. The Chinese central bank’s sudden move to cut interest rate and devalue its currency in August to prop up growth not only failed to calm investors, but worsened the economic picture worldwide….
Global markets had a good day today. The Nikkei rose 1.64%, the Shanghai Composite 1.28% and the Euro STOXX 50 was up a respectable 0.79%. In contrast, our benchmark S&P 500 bounced around in a relatively narrow range between its early session intraday high of 0.33% and its mid-afternoon -0.29% low. The index then trended…
I was going to give you this big macro rundown of what happened since the payroll number, but I changed my mind. Anybody can give you the play-by-play. Let’s talk about it in the context of true contrarian investing. Being contrarian doesn’t just mean doing the opposite of what everyone else is doing. It means…
There may be a rate hike around the next bend in the calendar after all. Or maybe not. Like the possibility of rain next Tuesday or peace in the Middle East over the next 50 years, you can’t rule anything out. Ruling it in isn’t a slam-dunk, but today’s lineup of Fed officials on the…
Trade prices continue to deflate year-over-year, and energy prices had little to do with this month’s decline. Import Oil prices were down 13.3% month-over-month, but export agricultural prices decreased 2.6%. with import prices down 0.1 % month-over-month,down 10.7 % year-over-year; and export prices down 0.7 % month-over-month,down 7.4 % year-over-year.. the markets were expecting (from Bloomberg): Consensus Range Consensus Actual…
In the aftermath of the October 15th, 2014 Treasury flash crash that was much fake “confusion” among the punditry about what caused the dramatic 20-sigma move in the 10 Year treasury. For us, however, there was no confusion, it was all due to a vicious case of HFT algo quote stuffing – a key component…
Physicists Should Stick to Physics We know already since Einstein that renowned physicists would do better to avoid straying into the field of economics. In 1949 Einstein published an essay on economics and education that is brimming with ignorance. According to Einstein, “The economic anarchy of capitalist society [is] the real source of evil”. Any old Marxist could…
It’s been an impressive and amazing rally during these last five trading days. The market paused briefly at resistance in the 1990 area on the S&P 500, but has been very resilient. It appears the relentless bid is back in force. Short term resistance was hit today as the S&P 500 briefly traded above its…
A federal case now under consideration in the First Circuit Court of Appeals could have huge ramifications for millions of Americans buried under student loan debt, as well as lenders and US taxpayers. Bloomberg reports Robert Murphy is closer than ever to victory: The unemployed 65-year-old, acting as his own attorney, spent three years appealing his…
