Surprisingly, to some, the economic news continues to show a marked lack of vitality. In particular, wholesale inventories showed an actual decline, with the prior figure being revised sharply downwards as well. This does not bode well for 4Q GDP. I have included the particulars in the evening stock markets report. There are jobs to…
China is slowing down. This should not be news, nor is this really up for debate. It’s pretty much an accepted fact at this point. But what isn’t known is how aggressively the economy in China is slowing down. Some analysts are anticipating a ‘hard landing,’ as years of credit excess may wreak havoc as…
Today’s action was more decisive towards bears, with volume rising in confirmed distribution. The Russell effectively confirmed the trendline break and now looking at the 1,140 swing low which marks support of its trading range. Should this be lost, then next step is a move towards 1,080. Technicals are all aligned in bears favour. The…
Today was a strange one. After last week’s experience (awesome Wednesday, awesome Thursday, terrible Friday), I was already worried that I was going to repeat the same thing (awesome Monday, awesome Tuesday… and then we opened sharply higher Wednesday). I whined to my buddy Northy that we bears were limited to just two good days…
The problem with exchange rates is that they don’t always tell us anything about what everyone seems to think. In fact, the more wholesale financial exhibitions in a particular currency, the less traditional interpretations conform. In many ways, this is very much like transitioning between classical physics in the Newtonian, deterministic paradigm into quantum physics’…
These are the charts of the hour, you really need little else. It shows a parabolic move in play in business loan charge offs and delinquencies. Normally this is associated with an increase in the Fed funds rate, but today this is happening with that rate at only 0.25%. So bring it on Janet. 7…
The chart below crystalizes why the Fed is stranded in a monetary no man’s land. By the time of next week’s meeting the federal funds rate will have been pinned at about 10 bps, or effectively zero, for 84 straight months. Yet during that same period, the consumer price level has risen by 1.75% per year. And that’s if you…
‘The stage before criticality’ – might best describe what’s going on in markets. During a majority of 2015 we technically described it as distribution, evidenced by lower breadth on most rallies versus declines; bounces led by most-shorted, and earlier by often-broken high-beta momo (momentum) stocks of the era; as at no point was there an attractive…
Mohnish Pabrai: The Relatable Super Investor Mohnish Pabrai is an Indian born investor, came to the United States to attend Clemson University in South Carolina in 1983. He didn’t major in finance. Pabrai was an engineery by trade and running a successful IT business and never heard of Buffett until he was 30. In fact, the…
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