The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) assumes that investors have “rational expectations.” This is the idea that, on average, the population is correct and whenever new information appears, expectations are updated appropriately. Wonderful in theory, but in the real world investors are anything but “rational.” As human beings, we tend to over react to new information, behaving in an…
How Did the Stock Market Do Yesterday? Dow Jones: 17,749.09; +224.18; +1.28% S&P 500: 2,073.07; +29.66; +1.45% Nasdaq: 5,071.13; +75.78; +1.52% The Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday (Wednesday) gained 224 points after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. It’s the first time the U.S. central bank has increased rates since 2006 and marks an end…
The current slump in global crude oil prices has exacted quite a significant toll on the oil and gas industry. Job losses worldwide are currently in excess of 200,000 and rising, billions of dollars worth of projects have been deferred or cancelled and there have been assets divestment as well as consolidation among companies in…
Time to review gold. Central bank protection is on sale at a discount! With a long term channel we can see a good match been now and 1976. Will the FED interest rate hike signal the bottom of gold! And momentum needs to change!.
Wow a 25 basis points rise after massive printing of money and unprecedented debt creation. The Global capital markets are now so distorted they are actually celebrating the rise. At least for a day or two but don’t expect the rally to last ! A $4.5 trillion balance sheet when it was $800 billion pre-crisis. This…
As I indicated in Tuesday’s summary the Fed will likely raise interest rates modestly but add plenty of “dovish” language. Markets loved this allowing for outsized gains heading into year-end better performance. There’s a major disconnect between Yellen’s rosy view of the economy. In that regard she often repeats her ongoing view of economic conditions…
Oracle Corp.’s (ORCL – Analyst Report) second-quarter fiscal 2016 adjusted earnings of 59 cents easily beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 57 cents. However, earnings declined 9.2% from 65 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. Adverse currency translations owing to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar weighed on the company’s financials in the quarter. Oracle Corporation (ORCL – Analyst…
As expected the Fed raised its interest rates and it looks like any further action taken will be gradual as it is willing to remain accommodative. Regarding its two mandates of full employment and target inflation @ 2.0%, it currently perceives “considerable” improvement occurring in the labor market and is “reasonably confident” over the medium term that inflation…
That the velocity of money has been crashing while the money supply has been exploding doesn’t seem to bother the mainstream pundits. There is always a fancy-footwork explanation of why whatever is crashing no longer matters. Take a look at these two charts and tell me money velocity doesn’t matter. First, here’s money supply: notice how money…
Like industrial production, the condition of oil inventory in the US was updated today in contradiction of the expectations driving Federal Reserve models expecting “transitory” weakness to simply pass into history. Unlike the virtual conditions for the FOMC, crude oil markets are obliged to respect both the eurodollar and the physical realities of physical commodities….
