The decline in house prices that began in 2006 wasn’t the cause of the 2007-2009 economic bust. The cause was widespread mal-investment resulting from monetary inflation and the Fed’s interest-rate manipulation. However, the 2006 reversal in house prices set off a series of falling economic dominoes due to the fact that the housing market was…
from The Conversation — this post authored by W David McCausland, University of Aberdeen With the US Federal Reserve seemingly set on raising interest rates, it’s time to take stock of what low rates have done for the world. And what the prospects are when this era of low interest rates comes to an end. Since the financial crisis,…
Last Friday, in the aftermath of the most recent mass shooting in San Bernardino and the latest attempt by Obama to impose further gun control measures, ostensibly by executive order, we pointed out the one thing, or rather person, who even the NYT begrudgingly admitted in an article on “What Drives Gun Sales” has been the…
Talking Points: FX Markets Mark Time Overnight as Traders Await FOMC Policy Announcement Scenario Analysis Hints Fed Hike to Boost US Dollar vs. Aussie, Kiwi Alternatives NZ Dollar Briefly Lower as FinMin English Suggests RBNZ May Cut Rate Further Currency markets are treading water in Asia trading hours as all eyes turn to the FOMC monetary policy announcement. Chair Yellen and…
USD/JPY Hourly [last 121.75]: Looking for 122.27 to cap for a move to 119.18 Viewing today’s USD/JPY rally as minor Wave B correction; critical resistance comes at 122.27; if that holds there is scope for a move back to 119.18 (a daily retracement level).
Without a doubt, the biggest mover of the market will be the FOMC Statement coming out later today. There are several announcements out there that could move the market slightly, but at the end of the day the interest-rate announcement and statement is the most important thing. An interest-rate hike is expected out of Washington, but it’s…
Given the upcoming FOMC meeting, it’s worth revisiting some of the mechanics around the rate hike. The FOMC is fully expected to lift the Fed Funds target range by 25bp – from 0-25bp to 25-50bp. The current Fed Funds rate is around 13bp. Does it mean that after the FOMC meeting we will see the…
Stocks put in another positive performance and leading the pack were the Energy (XLE +2.52%) and Financial (XLF +2.34%) sectors. Let’s give a hat tip to Crude Oil (USO +2.15%) because its recent rally is providing the grease to keep the wheels spinning in this market. (As long as energy market rally has gas to run, stocks should too, even if a disproportionately large…
In the past week, two readers, one of them a blogger, professed to “know” something that cannot possibly be known. “Epocalypse” Now The first person, an economic blogger, tells me a global economic collapse of biblical proportion is coming. He labels the collapse an “epocalypse” and offered a guest-post article that I passed on. I…
Tuesday’s stock market rally was misleading since breadth measures revealed a 3-1 advance decline. This in turn led the trusty McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) to approach a -100 reading. In the 40 years I’ve been involved with markets this type of reading has always produced a short squeeze rally. The same oversold conditions were seen Tuesday…
