Daily Forex Market Preview, 16/02/2016 With the markets now into their second consecutive day of declining against the US Dollar, there is a broad market pattern that indicates a potential pullback in the US Dollar, giving rise to a short-term bounce/correction in the recent market declines. The British Pound, however, is the exception as the…
Economic Reports Scorecard Relative to expectations, the incoming reports over the last two weeks have run about even, just about as many better than expected as worse. That’s a significant improvement over the trend from last year and early this year. I would emphasize however this is a result of reduced expectations not an improvement…
During the session on Tuesday, we get a handful of announcements out of the UK and Germany, so having said that it’s likely that we should continue to see quite a bit of volatility in that part of the world. Beyond that though, it should be a relatively steady session. 1 – It’s likely that…
The market sentiment game is in full swing… It’s a market bottom! See, the MSM said so. What could go wrong? Dow futures rally 200 points as analysts call market bottom Get this, the bounce has been expected by those of us not playing the emotion card. It is also not expected to be as…
by Fabius Maximus, FabiusMaximus.com Summary: The effects of debt are among the most widely misunderstood factors of macroeconomics. The almost delusional writings of perma-bears and conservatives have demonized debt, while economists often regard high debt levels with complacency. Yet economists have learned much about dynamics of debt. This post looks at this cutting edge of economic theory, very relevant…
USDJPY: The pair continued further higher on the back of its Friday strength on Monday. USDJPY faces recovery threats towards key resistance. On the downside, support comes in at the 112.00 level where a break if seen will aim at the 111.50 level. A cut through here will turn focus to the 111.00 level and…
Wishful thinking has been an integral driver of the “recovery” 2009-2015: asset bubbles aren’t bubbles, central bank policies are brilliantly successful, unemployment has dropped to levels of full employment, and so on. The problems with wishful thinking that I describe in my book A Radically Beneficial World are becoming more apparent by the day: 1. Elite/Technocrat self-confirmation: Those in…
In my first job as a municipal bond analyst and strategist a key datapoint to consider was the steepness of the yield curve! When the curve was at its steepest, investors would be ‘getting paid’ in the form of higher yields to assume the price and reinvestment risk of moving out to longer maturities. When flat, meaning…
The oil-led Friday rebound was highlighted by a seemingly desperate “road-show” of analysts and government officials, amid suspicion from experienced or geopolitically-informed observers, who remain skeptical that any important ‘low’ is in. Now, many believe that’s the case for the S&P; but not for Oil. They can’t have it both ways; although we believe that even…
(Running length 00:23:52)
