In his final state-of-the-union address, President Obama famously accused anyone who dares to question the strength of the US economic “recovery” of “peddling fiction.” Shortly thereafter, we learned that the US economy grew at a paltry 0.69% in Q4. Below estimates. Perhaps the most disturbing thing about the state of the economy – well, besides the fact…
On Thursday, the 30 Year Treasury Bonds put in a 40-year high! Why are these bonds going higher (i.e., yields trending lower) even after the Fed raised rates, and continues to talk about hiking interest rates in its forward guidance? It simply means that the market does not have a lot of faith in the…
“We all suffer for each other, and gain by each other’s suffering; for man never stands alone here, though he will stand alone hereafter; but here is he is a social being, and goes forward to his long home as one of a large company.” John Henry Newman “Only three things are necessary to make…
Last week we focused on the gold stocks. There was more initial evidence of a new bull market there than in Gold. However, Thursday Gold erased some doubts as it rocketed above $1200/oz and to as high as $1264/oz before settling a bit lower. That move puts Gold’s recovery on par with those following past…
If we have at least a good idea about the gross exposure to US junk if not who ultimately holds and funds it, the emerging markets infiltration is much more difficult to parse. There are only a handful of estimates that appear reliable enough to obtain a decent range estimate. The first comes from the…
This week didn’t help any of my core market health indicator categories. They’re still looking ugly. To make matters worse, Dow Theory signaled yesterday that we’re in the midst of a long term bear market that could last from one to three years. Bear markets are a time where it’s hard to make money. Take a look…
According to the most recent official data, the U.S. continues to import record volumes of silver.This is quite interesting because retail physical silver investment and industrial demand dropped off toward the end of the year. After the huge spike in physical silver investment from July to September, demand cooled down in October and November.Thus, silver…
Did some thinking on this. If we see the 10-year yield break below 1.50%, the next stop could be 1.0%. Central banks are out of bullets. The latest sign was last night’s warning by Japan’s Minister of Finance, Aso, not to bet on a rising yen. This is like when a team owner gives a…
This is a pure bottom picking trade with three potential big kickers: 1) Bank of Japan intervention; double-bottom hammer pattern bounce in oil; and 2) a double bottom hammer pattern in the S&P 500 index at key swing support 1820. There is a tight correlation between the path of oil prices and CAD/JPY as you can see in the chart…
No real damage to shorts yet in the oil market, only a little flesh wound. I predict that by May 6th we are above $42 a barrel in WTI, lots of repositioning to come about by this date. Video Length: 00:14:08
