Trade prices continue to deflate year-over-year, and energy prices again drove this month’s decline. Import Oil prices were down 12.4 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices decreased 1.1 %. with import prices down 1.1 % month-over-month,down 6.2 % year-over-year; and export prices down 0.8 % month-over-month,down 5.7 % year-over-year.. the markets were expecting (from Bloomberg):   Consensus Range Consensus Actual Export…

US retail sales rose a moderate 0.2% in January, the Census Bureau reports. The gain offers another clue for thinking that the stock market’s plunge this year may be a false warning about the near-term macro outlook. In fact, when you look at retail spending’s year-over-year rate, today’s release shows a modest acceleration in the trend. To…

Photo Credit: Alex Proimos || A bunch of con men attempt to bilk an unsuspecting lady There are many ways to try to cheat people in the investment world.  You can promise them: No risk (an appeal to fear) High returns (greed) Secret knowledge (can appeal to either or both fear and greed) An easy life,…

Wheeeeeee – that was fun!   As the groundhog (who’s name is Phil) predicted, we had 6 long weeks of selling to start off 2016 and, as of yesterday’s close, we were teetering on the brink of a Global Bear Market after a 20% correction – as you can see from the Bloomberg chart on the right….

There was much at stake in today’s retail sales report, because had the Census reported another miss in the headline, ex auto and control group data, it would have made the Fed’s job of maintain the illusion of a recovery into a rate hike cycle virtually impossible. Luckily for Yellen, the numbers came out and…