In the 1890s Charles Dana, editor of the New York Sun, referred to Chicago as the “Windy City.” Chicago was one of many cities competing to host the World’s Fair, and clearly the writer intended the double entendre to apply to the city’s weather as well as its mouthy politicians. When it comes to Chicago’s weather,…
Retail sales improved according to US Census headline data. Our view is that this month’s data was weaker than last month. There was a small decline in the rolling averages. Consider that the headline data is not inflation adjusted and prices are currently deflating making the data better than it seems. Backward data revisions were…
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Wow…things are certainly happening faster than I expected. As January kicked off the new year, I posted myoutlook for 2016 in which I discussed why, despite views of Goldman Sachs and many others, interest rates were going lower rather than higher. “With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates on the short-end (Fed Funds), it will likely push the…
Some good news from the US: retail sales are up 0.2% and with an upwards revision. The control group is up 0.6%, double the expectations. Also other figures look good. The US dollar is slightly stronger across the board, with safe havens extending their losses US retail sales for January 2016 were expected to rise…
The list of headwinds facing the equity market seems to be growing longer every day. However, the top concern is the question of whether the economy is headed for a recession or not. In several prior posts, we have noted our view is a recession is not imminent. Certainly slow GDP growth continues to be…
After a day of panic yesterday, financial markets stabilized during the Asian Session despite Japanese Nikkei dropping to its lowest point in more than a year (trading -5% at time of writing). USD/JPY which dropped as low as 110.98 yesterday, rebounded to 113.92 before stabilizing around 112.00 today. There are increased suspicions that the bounce in USD/JPY is attributed…
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +1.01%) are up +1.21% and European stocks are up +1.79% as strength in bank stocks and energy producers leads the overall market higher. JPMorgan Chase climbed over 3% and Bank of America added 2.4% in pre-market trading, while ConocoPhillips advanced 2.7% as the price of crude (CLH16 +4.69%) jumped…
There was some hope in early Japanese trading that after a seemingly endless rout in the USD/JPY, which has seen the Yen surge the most in the past two weeks since the 1998 Asian crisis, the BOJ would intervene, if not via policy where it has botched things up beyond repair then directly by selling…
After another difficult Asian session that saw the Nikkei fell 4.8% (12.3% on the week), the capital markets against have stabilized in Europe. Equity markets are mostly higher, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 up nearly 2% led by energy and financials. Oil prices are up a bit more than $1 a barrel though it still leaves Brent off…
