Monthly Archives: March 2016

Asian Markets React To Yellen’s Caution

Asian markets advanced on Wednesday, following gains in U.S. equities overnight after Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen told markets that the Fed would move ‘cautiously’ in a scheduled speech to the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday. Only Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed down 224.57 points, or 1.31 percent, at 16,878.96. The Korean Kospi ended…

T2108 Update – Yellen Punches The Market’s Refresh Button

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on…

Italian Economic Woes Drag On MIB Despite ECB Tailwinds

Even with the implementation of extremely accommodative monetary policy conditions across the Euro Area intended to promote growth, inflation, and spur lending, equities have not benefited as greatly as anticipated owing to a host of factors. For Italy in particular, challenging domestic economic conditions and lacking fiscal stimulus measures have prevented the economy from rebounding…

This (Crashing) Trend Is Not Your Friend

Despite Yellen’s best efforts to basically dismiss any and all data as irrelevant going forward in The Fed’s decision-making process, we suspect all eyes (and algos) will be firmly glued to this week’s payrolls’ data. Will it be another record month for Obama to crow about? Will Mark Zandi do the “told you so dance”…

The ‘Mystery’ In TIC Is Likely Important Given These Big Numbers...

The “first” part of the TIC data update for January was relatively straightforward, especially since the scale of the net transaction adjustments in both December and January really did match what happened in January (crossing into February). The Treasury Department’s estimate for foreign holdings of US dollar assets were nothing short of remarkable in all…

How Many Tech Startups Are Empty Shells?

How many startups are empty shells filled with glitzy PR designed to appeal to VC newbies? It’s widely accepted that most tech startups will fail. Perhaps the core business proposition didn’t pan out, or the execution was flawed, or the initial success foundered on poor management, or another startup scaled up fast enough to suck up…

Yellen Remains Dovish, Dollar Slides

The outlook for another interest rate hike remained unclear following the speech by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen to the Economic Club in New York Tuesday, her first press conference after the Fed held rates steady two weeks ago. The U.S. dollar dropped sharply and stocks on Wall Street moved higher after Yellen’s comments seem…