When the Federal Reserve released its monetary policy statement last week, there were no surprises — no rate increase, no hint of when to expect an increase and no, well … nothing. Fed Chair Janet Yellen toed that dovish line in a press conference shortly after the statement was released, not budging an inch. While…
Crude oil has had a wild ride this year. It seemed every day in January oil was making new lows before it bottomed in early February at $26.05.The last five weeks have been the opposite, with almost every day a green day for the black gold. Crude oil futures looked to have finally topped out…
Should you buy a company after it has cut its dividend? That’s the question Morgan Stanley’s analysts have tried to answer in a European Equity Strategy research note sent to clients today and a reviewed by ValueWalk. Morgan’s research has been prompted by renewed investor interest in dividend cuts. Against a depressed earnings base, the…
I have written recently about the long-term timing symmetry in silver at the lows in November of 2014 and January of this year. The low in January marked the 50% retracement of the time elapsed between the low in November of 2001 and the high in April of 2011. The secondary low in November of…
Over the past two weeks I’ve been expecting a short term top (at the least). It appears that the selling has started. The first evidence comes from daily momentum and sentiment for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) generated from the Twitter stream. It printed a -21 on Thursday, which I consider an initiation thrust. When large negative…
In case you missed it, DM central banks are locked in a truly epic FX deathmatch. Sluggish growth and trade and the attendant global deflationary supply glut have left the world stuck in a nauseating, perpetual hangover from the financial crisis. Subpar inflation and disappointing growth have become the norm in developed markets and that’s lured…
The S&P 500 has clawed its way back to even for the year, but investors should be cautious as the market still faces three major hurdles to overcome before an extended rally can occur. I started the New Year with a non-sanguine view of the market. With this outlook, my portfolio had a 30% allocation…
AIG Ordered to Pay $9.5 Million On March 14, 2016, three affiliates of American International Group (NYSE:AIG) were fined $9.5 million by the SEC for reportedly engaging in reverse-churning and steering investors of retirement products into costly mutual funds with wrap fees. The wrap fees are higher fees that normally apply to higher volume traders, but the…
The rout in oil prices has claimed several victims. Through mid-December there were 41 oil & gas bankruptcies. In some instances the death knell for drillers is not complete until bankers pull the plug. That process might have started after bankers cut W&T Offshore’s (WTI) revolver from $350 million to $150 million: W&T Offshore, Inc. announced…
500 and Counting I’m now about 500 posts and a million words into the back-to-front world of financial psychology and you might think I’d have learned something useful by now. Well, it turns out there are only a couple of things you need to bear in mind: that mean reversion is the only certain thing…
