Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims The market expectations (from Bloomberg) were 260,000 to 272,000 (consensus 268,000), and the Department of Labor reported 265,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 259,500 (reported last week as 268,000)…
The Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders released today gives us a first look at the December durable goods numbers. Here is the Bureau’s summary on new orders: New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $6.6 billion or 2.8 percent to $229.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease,…
Chang and Eng were the first internationally known “Siamese twins”, as a result of their having been exhibited worldwide. Although each had a complete body, they were joined together at the sternum. In 1870, Chang suffered a stroke and his health deteriorated over the next four years. In 1874, at age sixty-two, he developed bronchitis…
Good Friday, which falls on March 25 this year, is officially a holiday for the Wall Street and the U.S. stock exchanges. Nevertheless, for an avid investor, the holiday is a great opportunity to ponder over the best stepping stone to hit the market with a blast ahead of next week’s trading. Year to date,…
Less than convincing data from the US: durable goods orders fell by 2.8%, slightly better than expected but on top of a downward revision. Worse off, core orders dropped by 1%, far worse than 0.2% expected and also with a downward revision. Jobless claims beat with 265K and with a small revision to 259K for the…
Let’s begin with the UK where a higher risk of Brexit is now being priced into the markets. Once again, the Brussels attack made a “yes” vote on Brexit more probable. 1. The euro-sterling exchange rose to the highest level in over a year (pound fell vs. the euro). 2. The British pound 3-month implied…
The preliminary February US Durable Goods report wasn’t exactly a strong report despite beating expectations, and helped keep the US Dollar’s intraday pullback in place. While the headline figure was ‘above expectations,’ the prior month’s data were revised lower, creating an illusionary base effect. Accounting for these statistical quirks, it’s clear that US consumers are…
For traders, managing risk is absolutely essential. You may think that you’re onto a winning position, but if things go the wrong way then you want to make sure that your losses are limited. Traders use stop losses to achieve this, ensuring that they exit their position if the market moves in the wrong direction….
Durable Goods New Orders (Ex-Transports) or so-called “Core” durable goods dropped 0.5% YoY, extending its losing streak to 13 months. This is the longest streak in the history of the series with no recession. All segments of the durable goods report saw negative MoM moves with headline down 2.8% (small beat) but prior data was revised dramatically lower, Capital…
Helicopter money is the rage. Central banks are talking about it. Economists are debating it. The media is rife with coverage. While it sounds important, it is not precisely clear what helicopter money means. It appears to have originated with Milton Friedman. In 1969, he wrote: “Let us suppose now that one day a helicopter flies…
