GBP/USD: The pair continues to look weak and vulnerable to the downside in the short term despite its recovery attempts on Tuesday. On the downside, support lies at the 1.4400 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.4350 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.4300 level. Below here will set the stage…
After two violently volatile days in which the market soared (Monday) then promptly retraced all gains (Tuesday), the overnight session has been relatively calm with futures and oil both unchanged even as the BBG dollar index rose to the highest level since April 4. This took place despite a substantial amount of macro data from…
US economic growth remains sluggish, hinting at the possibility that a new recession may be near. But the numbers don’t align with a pessimistic intuition. The probability is extremely low that April marked the start of an NBER-defined downturn, based on published reports to date. Projecting a broad set of indicators into the near-term future suggests that…
EUR/USD is trading lower for the last few weeks away from 1.1616 where pair found a high of a complex corrective recovery up into blue wave C-circled that represents part of a big consolidation on higher time frames. Notice that price recently fell beneath the trendline support so it appears that lower levels are in…
The pound continues enjoying optimism regarding remaining in the EU and the USD reacts to Fed officials talking about a hike. Today these currencies will be tested on the UK jobs report which provides a relief from the Brexit talk. In the US, the Fed minutes. Also watch for a potential move in EUR/USD with…
On Tuesday, oil closed higher as there is an expectation that U.S. stockpiles are heading lower. There was news that the wildfires in Canada are now targeting a new oil supply line, which should boost oil prices. U.S. crude oil closed up 1.2% to $48.31 a barrel, which is the best level it has seen…
S&P 500 The S&P 500 fell during the day on Tuesday, as we continue to bounce around the 2050 region. We tested the 2040 handle for support again, and of course found it there but as you can see the market does not look ready to move in any one particular direction. Perhaps later today…
Japan’s economy returned to growth through the first quarter (1Q) of 2016. However, the optimism this data may otherwise supply is significantly diminished by the volatility in the economy’s performance figures and a perpetual diversion from monetary policy and intervention threats. In the official GDP figures, Japan grew 1.7% on an annualized basis through the…
The fallacy in this assumption is that homeowners’ incomes do not automatically rise along with housing valuations. In my recent entry Dear Homeowner: If You’re Paying $260,000 in Property Taxes Over 20 Years, What Exactly Do You “Own”?, I questioned the consequences of high property taxes. Some readers wondered if I was saying all property taxes should…
Slightly better than expected data from the UK: the Claimant Count Change is at -2.4K, better than expected for April. Wages are mixed, with a beat on average hourly earnings at 2% y/y, but when excluding bonuses, we have a slide to 2.1%, worse than expected. The unemployment rate remains at 5.1% in the month of March,…
