The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond is set to deliver his first Autumn budget tomorrow, and it could be his last. The UK government is fragile. Infighting is notorious. It appears the hardline Brexit camp does not trust Hammond. A cabinet reshuffle is widely rumored, and Hammond seems vulnerable. Prime Minister May, who also initially was in…
The economy’s rate of growth surged based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3 month moving (3MA) average – and economic growth is significantly above the historical trend rate of growth. Analyst Opinion of the CFNAI This Month The single month index which is not used for economic forecasting which unfortunately is what…
Forget about big hair, Ray-Bans, and Donkey Kong. Don’t even think about Live-Aid, Thriller, and E.T. Above all else, the 1980s were the gravy days of the money supply aggregates. Beginning in late 1979, the Fed built its policy approach around the aggregates—primarily M1 but occasionally M2, and policymakers also monitored M3 while experimenting with M1B…
What would happen if I recommended a stock that had no profits, was losing billions of dollars a year, and had a net worth of negative $44 trillion? Chances are, you would cancel your subscription to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, demand a refund, unfriend me on Facebook, and unfollow me on Twitter. What if you did an…
Just a short note for today as I am taking a quick vacation for the “Thanksgiving” holiday. As I noted this past weekend: “Thanksgiving week is traditionally an extremely ‘light’ trading period where the ‘inmates are running the asylum.’ With the market more overbought now than at any other period since 2011, a consolidation or further corrective action…
The US Treasury yield curve collapse continued its unending path to inversion overnight with 2s10s plunging to sub-60bps and 5s30s hits a 65bps handle for the first time since Nov 2007. 2s10s has flattened for 3 days straight, 6 of the last 7 days, and 14 of the last 17 days to a 58bps handle… 5s30s has flattened 3 days…
Veteran investor and hedge fund mogul George Soros of Soros Fund Management LLC has made some key changes to the fund portfolio as per the latest disclosure with SEC. The Hungarian-born octogenarian has ramped up his $4.2 billion fund’s stake in Comcast Corporation (Nasdaq: CMCSA), TiVo Corporation (Nasdaq: TIVO), and Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX). The legendary hedge fund manager and self-made…
“Index points to a pickup in economic growth in October.” This is the headline for today’s release of the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.65 in October from +0.36 in September. One…
from Liberty Street Economics — this post authored by David Lucca, Daniel Roberts, and Peter Van Tassel In recent months, some analysts and policymakers have raised concerns about the unusually low level of stock market volatility. For example, in the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes “a few participants expressed concern that subdued market volatility, coupled…
We all know by now that it has been a very strong year for the Technology sector. Not only have the gains been large, but just about every stock associated with the sector not named IBM has had a great year. In fact, within the S&P 500 Technology sector, all seven Industry Groups have rallied…
