Let’s assume we are in fact late-cycle. Some folks will tell you that’s not the case and they’ll roll out all kinds of cherry picked metrics to support their contention that “mid-cycle” is a better description of where things stand. One thing worth noting about those arguments is that they are incomplete if the person…
Cryptocurrency NEO, which is also known as the Chinese variant of Ethereum, rose a spectacular 50% today. Although not visible on this chart it touched $45 USD per coin a couple of hours ago. Note that NEO was trading at $25 USD on November 1. According to Wikipedia NEO tries to create “a financial system that will…
The Philippines witnessed impressive economic growth in the third quarter of 2017. Per the National Statistics Agency, GDP grew 6.9% year over year in the third quarter compared with 6.7% in the prior quarter and 7.1% in the year-ago period. It also beat a Bloomberg forecast of 6.6%. The Philippines has been one of the best performing…
Fundamental Forecast for CNH: Neutral The PBOC will continue the current monetary policy, which has neutral impact to the Yuan. The regulator watches capital flows and told it would counter against cycles through FX market. A high level of broad credit and soaring real-estate prices prevent the PBOC to cut rates. The Chinese Yuan gained against…
On Friday, the small caps outperformed the mega caps as the Russell 2000 – RUT was up 0.40%, while the Dow was down 0.43%. In the midst of this middling action, the JNK high yield bond index was down 0.05% and the HYG high yield bond index was down 0.03%. The chart below shows the…
Last week, I discussed the potential year-end setup for a January correction. To wit: “It is the turn of the calendar where I see the potential for a bigger correction. Come January, I think there is a high-likelihood of ‘tax selling’ by fund-managers to lock in gains, particularly if ‘tax reform’ legislation has passed, as taxes won’t be…
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Korea (+4.2%), South Africa (+3.2%), and Thailand (+1.9%) have outperformed this week, while Egypt (-5.1%), Turkey (-1.9%), and Russia (-1.8%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 0.7% this week while MSCI DM fell -0.3%. In the EM local currency bond space,…
Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral US Dollar pressured as “Trump trade” narrative continues to fizzle Politics to overshadow Yellen speech, FOMC minutes, PMI surveys Holiday liquidity drain might amplify volatility on major news-flow The US Dollar continued to retreat last week as the prospect of expansionary fiscal policy that boosts inflation and nudges the Fed into a…
New home sizes peaked between 2014 and 2015. A distinct down-sizing is now underway. What’s going on? The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) reports Declining New Home Size Trend Continues. After increasing and leveling off in recent years, new single-family home size continued along a general trend of decreasing size during the third quarter of 2017….
In line with our uranium forecast for 2018 we observe this week a potentially very bullish evolution both in uranium stocks as well as in uranium’s spot price. If this trend continues 2018 could become a hugely bullish year for uranium stocks. First, uranium’s spot price rose with 15 percent this week. Note the steep rally on the…
