Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting Q4 2017 –Special Guest Ben Hunt, Author and Editor of Epsilon Theory The quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Fund’s Advisory Board took place on October 10 and we had the great pleasure to be joined by special guest Ben Hunt this time, who is probably known to many of our readers…
Investors aren’t paying attention. There is an important picture that is currently developing which, if it continues, will impact earnings and ultimately the stock market. Let’s take a look at some interesting economic numbers out this past week. On Tuesday, we saw the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) which ROSE 0.4% for the month following…
The debate about the value of the Treasury spread for business-cycle analysis is set to intensify in the wake of the latest slide in the difference between the 10-year and 2-year rates. Although the US economic trend remains healthy, the ongoing decline in the yield spread implies trouble ahead, based on this indicator’s historical record. US recessions…
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market continues to dance around the $55 level, finding support at that level. However, the question now is whether we can break down or not. If we do, the market will probably find support at $53, as supply continues to be a significant issue. Alternately, if we were…
Recently, a relatively new economics called Behavioral Economics (BE) has started to gain popularity. Its practitioners such as Daniel Kahneman, Vernon Smith and Richard Thaler were awarded Nobel prizes for their contribution in the field of BE. The BE framework emerged on account of dissatisfaction with the neo-classical theory regarding consumer choices. A major problem…
AT40 = 45.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 11.8 (10.4% loss)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary It was one of THOSE days for anyone or anything standing in the way of the buyers. An overwhelming rush to the basket… (Philadelphia 76ers…
The e-commerce industry is largely dominated by few giants. Amazon (AMZN) is the largest player in the market in terms of market capitalization. On the other side of the world, Alibaba (BABA) is growing fast as it continues to capitalize on its home country’s massive population and a growing community of online shoppers. Amazon and Alibaba have a combined…
The president of the ECB has increasing confidence that the economic expansion is solid. This sounds like an upgrade in comparison to previous statements, which acknowledged the progress but did not sound so optimistic. However, inflation hasn’t reached the point of being self-sustained. Draghi is basically keeping things balanced with the normal caution about inflation. However,…
Industrial Production benefited from a hurricane rebound in October 2017, rising 2.9% above October 2016. That is the highest growth rate in nearly three years going back to January 2015. With IP lagging behind the rest of the manufacturing turnaround, this may be the best growth rate the sector will experience. Production overall was still…
The T. Rowe Price Group expects the yield curve to completely flatten in 2018. This is not a surprise as I have been commenting the same way for quite some time. The more important question is how? By yields converging up, down, or a mix? Please consider Bond Traders Should Prepare for Yield Curve to Zero…
