Last week, trades on major currencies were very active. However, a unidirectional trend was not observed. The dollar index (#DX) closed the trading week with a slight decrease. The Fed raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%. The regulator remains concerned about low inflation in the US. The National Bank of…
Welcome to another edition of Macro Mondays! I hope you’re excited as I am to talk about one of the most well-known US indices – the Nasdaq! You hear a lot about the Nasdaq in the news, and many people assume that the index is nothing but high-growth technology companies, but that isn’t the case….
Looking at this week’s COT report, extremes continue in long crude oil and short Swiss franc positions. This is illustrated below: CFTC COT (futures & options combined) – December 12, 2017 Source: CFTC, MarketsNow Notable extremes are bolded, and are highlighted when speculator positioning is more than two standard deviations above historical trailing 1-year and…
The November property price data out of China confirmed what we’ve been talking about for a while now (before most others caught on); the cooling off of the current price boom, and the prospects of a slowdown in 2018. This is a critical theme to be across because it involves a number of key global macro trends…
Speculators significantly reduced exposure to gold and S&P 500 futures, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. Equity markets, meanwhile, continue to ignore the warning signs, closing the week at fresh record highs on the back of tax bill hopes. Elsewhere, euro speculation reaches another extreme and (non-commercial) treasury speculators continue to favor…
Nations that attempt to limit cryptocurrencies’ ability to solve these problems will find that protecting high costs and systemic friction will grind their economies into dust. There’s a great deal of confusion right now about the regulation of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. Many observers seem to confuse “regulation” and “banning bitcoin,” as if regulation amounts to…
Even though the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee voted to hike short term interest rates in the U.S. by a quarter percent on Wednesday, 13 December 2017, the biggest news of the week, as far as the U.S. stock market was concerned, came on Friday as the congressional majority Republicans announced they had reached a compromise between the…
EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD bearish break below the support trend line (dotted blue) makes it likely that price will challenge the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (pink). A break below the 100% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the wave 2 (pink) and indicates an expansion of wave 4 (light purple). 1…
AT40 = 59.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 59.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 9.4Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish CommentaryThe market fatigue I pointed out last week lasted just one more day. In the spirit of this relentless bull market, the dip was ever so shallow and ever…
USD/CAD is facing 1.2916 resistance once again. A breakout of this level could trigger further upside movement towards 1.3100. Near-term support is at 1.2800, a breakdown below this level could bring price back to next support level at 1.2713. Below here would aim 1.2623 support.
