In this crucial extended weekend video we analyze the major indices, sectors, and ETFs that are driving the market. There is one aspect of the market that is will determine the next move for the rest of the market. Watch this video to find out the trade to take is right for you.
On Dec 19 the GDPNow model estimated fourth-quarter GDP at 3.3%. The forecast is now 2.8%. Let’s review the reasons. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model has shown similar patterns for three quarters: High initial estimates followed by a choppy dive much lower as the quarter progresses. The reasons vary quarter to quarter but the pattern remains the…
The US dollar struggled the week before Christmas, despite the final approval of tax changes and a backing up of US interest rates. The dollar fell against most of the major currencies except the Japanese yen. The yen is particularly sensitive to changes in the US 10-year yield and the 14 bp increase over the past…
Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) (BRK-B), is arguably the greatest investor of all time. Buffett took a declining textile mill and turned it into one of the largest conglomerates in the world. Berkshire has a hand in nearly every industry in the economy. Its portfolio of business subsidiaries includes GEICO, Fruit…
EUR/USD traded higher in the last week before the holidays. Will it continue higher in the last week of 2017? We have some inflation figures just before the New Year. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. The final read of inflation for November did not move the needle:…
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of December 25 December 26 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 20.0 30.0 23.0 December 27 S&P Case/Shiller Index – October Twenty City M/M 0.0%…
VIX challenged its Intermediate-term resistance at 10.18 but closed beneath it A close above Long-term resistance at 10.98 may generate a buy signal. A breakout above the Ending Diagonal trendline suggests a complete retracement of the decline from January 2016, and possibly to August 2015. (WSJ) U.S. stocks continue to loll along but a…
“There is a material risk of yield curve inversion over the forecast horizon if the FOMC continues on its present course of increases in the policy rate. It is possible that yield curve inversion will be avoided because longer-term nominal yields will begin to rise in tandem with the policy rate, but this seems unlikely…
Note: This commentary has been updated to include this morning’s release of the November data for Real Personal Income Less Transfer Receipts. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they…
2017 has been a banner year for the U.S. stock market and the trend is likely to continue next year. The tax reform will act as a major driving factor for stocks coupled with strong corporate earnings and accelerating economic growth in many parts of the world. As Christmas tree symbolizes good tidings, let’s build…
