The Third Estimate for Q3 GDP came in at 3.2% (3.16% to two decimals), up from 3.1% in Q2. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 2.39% to two decimal points. Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis, we’ve chained in today’s dollar for…
“O, for a muse of fire, that would ascend The brightest heaven of invention, A kingdom for a stage, princes to act And monarchs to behold the swelling scene!” William Shakespeare, Prologue, Henry V Stocks managed to hold on to their gains today. Gold finished higher with silver off just a bit. Tomorrow’s trade is going…
Our theme that a new business cycle expansion began in 2016 is easy to see in basic industrial and material sectors we have highlighted in past newsletters.Less obvious is the persistent consumption trends since the 2008/2009 Great Recession. While consumers have been the backbone of most expansion cycles, they have been the only GDP component…
Our theme that a new business cycle expansion began in 2016 is easy to see in basic industrial and material sectors we have highlighted in past newsletters.Less obvious is the persistent consumption trends since the 2008/2009 Great Recession. While consumers have been the backbone of most expansion cycles, they have been the only GDP component…
Everyone is out searching for an edge. Some investing insight that will give them an advantage over everyone else. Investors all define an edge as something different, but everyone is looking for something. I have news, unless you’re a fly on the wall in a Board room, or snuck some inside information you have no…
It really does feel as though Christmas is being used an excuse not to do anything! Volumes have been poor for a while but recent trading questions whether we really need to open five days a week. No-one expected the BOJ to light the fuse and that was reflected in todays price movement. Early losses…
On Tuesday, I showed you how the bitcoin bubble looks a lot like the internet bubble that inflated in the final phase – the orgasm – of the great tech bubble of December 1994 into March 2000. It crashed faster and harder than the Nasdaq bubble – down 93% compared to 78%. It was also a leading…
Natural gas prices declined another percent and a half on the day today, settling at their lowest level since February 21st. This came as the entire strip sold off about equally, though the prompt month January contract saw a bit of strength off continued medium-term cold risks. Henry Hub cash prices came under fire today…
At the end of each year, we always like to take a look at where Wall Street strategists think the S&P 500 is headed over the next year.According to Bloomberg, the consensus S&P 500 price target for the end of 2018 stands at 2,854.That would represent a 2018 gain of roughly 6%. Below, is a look…
