When it comes to timing the next recession – or the next Fed policy mistake – there are few signals that pundits rely more on than the shape of the yield curve, which, as we have covered extensively in the past year, has bear flattened dramatically since 2015 as the Fed has hiked rates, with…
Even a 9-month old instinctively knows to hold on to her hat when the wind is blowing. After all, when the bough breaks, the market will fall, is a revision of the lullaby, quite honestly, I never understood as soothing. With so many interpretations, the one I find most like the current market conditions is based…
Investors should just stick to facts and fundamentals. Earnings should alleviate many of the fears. That’s what Marko Kolanovic told Bloomberg in a recent interview that found the JPMorgan quant attempting (again) to explain why it makes sense for investors to remain bullish in the face of mounting geopolitical headwinds. Maybe Marko will be right (he’s good…
Bank stocks are up +19.2% over the past year, outperforming the broader market’s +15.5% gains and the Finance sector’s +17.7% gain. But the industry has struggled lately, with stocks in the Zacks Major Banks industry down -8.6% since February 1, underperforming the S&P 500 index’s -5.6% decline in that same period, as the chart below…
The US dollar extended its recovery in the new quarter, at least against the majors. Is this trend real? US inflation data and the FOMC meeting minutes stand out in the second week of April. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week. The US gained only 103K jobs in March, fewer than expected. However, wage growth…
With nothing more than a quick glance, March’s jobs report was a bit alarming. We only added 103,000 new positions, and the unemployment rate actually didn’t edge lower to 4.0%, as was expected. That’s a far cry from the 326,000 new payrolls added in February, particularly in light of the fact that we’re allegedly in…
There are several dominant patterns in bilateral US dollar exchange rates. It might be helpful to focus on these as the macro investment climate has become unhinged with the US threatening to escalate the already elevated trade tensions. Indeed, the trade tensions, which have contributed to the rise of equity market volatility, have left the currency…
Over the last couple of weeks, not a lot has changed. Market internals remain poor, and “trade war” rhetoric from the White House continues to worry the markets. It also certainly didn’t help the situation on Friday when President Trump decided to calm the markets by saying: “I’m not saying there won’t be a little pain so…
