Monthly Archives: April 2018

When War Is Not A Metaphor

We have voiced our objections to the militarization of the language surrounding foreign exchange and trade. For several years, the media and journalists played up ideas of currency wars–beggar-thy-neighbor competitive devaluations. Leave aside the fact that it was often indistinguishable from easy monetary policies to facilitate economic recovery and arrest deflationary forces.   Now it is trade wars,…

Excelling At Reversing

I believe stocks have personalities, just like people do. I am drawn to stocks that have exhibited a clear tendency to fall hard when they form a clean top. A favorite of mine these days is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). The pas instances of tops followed by big drops is a marvel to behold. Here’s…

Transferring Wealth In Light Of Tax Reform

The new tax reform that was signed into law in December, 2017, made important changes that will affect estate planning and wealth transfer strategies for many individuals and families. Here are some of these changes and how they might impact you and your family. Estate and Gift Tax Exclusion Doubled The main provision of the…

Volatility Is Back

IF IT WORKED IN 2017, ITS NOT WORKING NOW The most profitable trades of 2017 are suddenly not working. Managers who made a killing selling volatility over the past five years woke up to the harsh reality that no strategy works forever, and that selling volatility in a late-cycle economy can be a recipe for…

February 2018 Manufacturing New Orders Improved

US Census says manufacturing new orders improved. Our analysis shows the rolling averages declined. Analyst Opinion of Census Manufacturing Sales According to the seasonally adjusted data, it was aircraft which accounted for much of the increase. The data in this series is noisy so I would rely on the unadjusted 3 month rolling averages which…

The New Cold War Could Speed Up The Ongoing U.S. Dollar Collapse

iStock/Rrraum The New Cold War Will Increase Military Spending and Debt, Causing a U.S. Dollar Collapse To understand the renewed “cold war” between the United States and its allies with Russia, look no further than the possibility–or the probability–of a U.S. dollar collapse. The U.S. dollar remains the world’s dominant currency. Countries–even those that don’t…

MSA Safety – No Investor Protection

MSA develops, manufactures and supplies products that are intended to protect users from hazardous or life-threatening atmospheric situations. Their products are used by workers in the oil and gas, fire service, mining and construction industries, as well as the military. Listed industry peers include Sperian Protection, Abatix Corporation, and Lakeland Industries. I get it, I’m…