As 25% tariffs were imposed on US pork exports to China, hog futures continued the downward decline. Source: ino.com. In longer term perspective, prices have been trending down, with futures for June 2018 now lower than spot prices at the end of 2016: Figure 1: Pork prices (net farm value, cents per pound) (blue), 2 April futures for June…
April has historically been one of the strongest months of the year for the stock market. Recently, though, the gains have all come in the second half of the month once Tax Day (April 15th) passes. We ran a screen to find the median change of S&P 500 sectors over the last 12 years from…
Will this Friday’s US jobs report be the catalyst that sends gold above the key $1370 resistance zone and ushers in a new era of institutional enthusiasm for gold stocks? Double click to enlarge. The US stock market suffered yet another “cardiac arrest” moment yesterday. Market breadth has thinned horrifically, and the low rates and QE that…
SPX Elliott Wave view suggests rally to 2801.90 on 3/13/2018 ended Primary wave ((X)). Decline from there is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Intermediate wave (W) ended at 2585.89 and Intermediate wave (X) ended at 2674.22. Subdivision of Intermediate wave (W) unfolded as another double three of a lower degree where Minor wave W…
After an explosive 2017 (+19.4%) and first month of 2018 (+5.6%), the Easter Bunny came out and laid an egg last month (-2.7%). It is normal for financial markets to take a breather, especially after an Energizer Bunny bull market, which is now expanding into its 10th year of cumulative gains (up +296% since the lows…
Money Managers Could Be Expecting a Stock Market Crash The odds of a stock market crash continue to stack higher. Stock investors beware, because major losses could be ahead. Capital preservation could be very important in the next few months. Investor sentiment is changing, and there’s a lot of evidence of it. This is not…
Two conditions often precede market trend reversals: extremes and divergences. S&P 500 may have difficulty achieving a 10-year annualized nominal 5% return. Buying Pressure is now less than 1/2 of combined Buying Pressure and Selling Pressure, after many months of decline. Allocate Own and Loan at low end of personal investment policy Hold dry powder…
What a day! The beginning of the new quarter, the new month and the new week was undoubtedly the triumph of oil bears. Thanks to their attack, crude oil lost almost 3% in one day, which was the biggest decline since weeks. Conversely, our subscribers were on the winning side as based on the March…
The S&P 500 large cap index is testing the lows of February, but VIX acts nowhere near as panicky. This could be a tell for stocks near-term. The ISM manufacturing index dropped 1.5 points month-over-month in March. February’s 60.8 was the highest since 61.4 in May 2004. Manufacturing is strong. It is difficult to imagine…
You may have noticed stocks have stopped going straight up. By itself, that’s not scary. Bull markets and high volatility can coexist, and often did until the last few years. No, the scary part is that bull markets fall apart slowly. Even in 2008, the bull took a long time to collapse. The Bear Stearns collapse…
