Monthly Archives: April 2018

Market Talk – Monday, April 2

Many expected a quiet session for markets today given the Easter holidays, but the reaction to US/China trade tensions over the weekend has ruffled a few US Traders! Having seen the Q1 closing rally last week, we are back to pressure and the tech sector taking the hit yet again. The major contributors to the…

Blog Traffic Picks Up As Bears Take Control

Blog traffic has doubled over the last three days as ‘panic reading’ takes hold of the market. Such spikes in readership have in the past acted as good points for a near-term bottom, although today’s action does not suggest as such. The S&P and Dow Jones both offered breakdowns from their respective ‘bear flags’. The S&P…

What Do The Dividends Of Paychex, Inc. Say About Its Fair Value?

Paychex, Inc. (Nasdaq: PAYX) currently pays a dividend yield of 3.2% which is above the Information Technology sector median of 1.7%. While this makes the total return potential for Paychex attractive, investors may change their mind when analyzing the company’s future dividends. In this article, I calculate Paychex’s fair value by forecasting its dividend distributions and…

2.4% GDP Growth Predicted For Q1 2018

ECRI Index Declines Slightly As you can see from the chart below, the weekly ECRI index’s growth rate fell slightly from 5.4% to 5.2%. The longer it stays in the mid single digits, the better. This implies the 2nd half of 2018 will see strong economic growth as there will be a re-acceleration after a modest…

Document Study

But I don’t get to watch much television. Primarily because of documents. I’m reading documents. A lot. — Donald Trump,  ca. November On Monday morning, it kinda seems like maybe the President eschewed his traditional “document study” time in favor of a heavy dose of Fox News, because what emanated from his Twitter feed starting promptly…

Did China Really Win, Or Did Everyone Lose?

Of all the economic accounts where last year’s big tropical storms would have had the greatest impact, any substantial boost in construction spending made the most sense. What is destroyed is most often quickly rebuilt, particularly in the public arena. One of the core functions of local government is infrastructure, and no local politician can…

The Spotify Deal

Call it what you will (IPO, DPO, simple listing) but Spotify (NYSE: SPOT) will begin trading in the public markets on April 3rd. The shares have a trading and price history that the company includes in their prospectus – they place a high emphasis on “transparency” in their corporate culture. Spotify is a company we’ll be following since…

Is The Stock Market Cheap? – Monday, April 2

Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor’s “as reported” earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor’s latest earnings spreadsheet. TTM P/E ratio =…