The Washington Post decided to give us “Finance 202” to tell us that tax cuts at this point in the business cycle are a bad idea. The gist of the argument is that the economy is approaching full employment, so there is little room left for further stimulus. The piece also tells us that because…
February was a very interesting month, wasn’t it? There was the pause or even end of the inflation hysteria driven home by “unexpected” liquidations in markets all over the world. On top of those, LIBOR-OIS blew out and all the absurd explanations put forth for it, and even outright lies. Needless to say (write), I’ve been…
Deregulatory moves, both actual and anticipated, have been hailed as spurring business fixed investment. Is there content to this assertion? A glance at nonresidential fixed investment seems to be supportive. Figure 1: Private nonresidential fixed investment, in billions of Ch.2009$, SAAR (blue). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, 2017Q4 3rd release. However, the standard…
“…I decided to fade [USD/TRY] in anticipation of the next pullback. I also hope to collect a decent amount of carry as financial markets settle down a bit with earnings in the U.S. Still, until the CBRT takes definitive action, it makes sense to short the lira in the middle of what looks like an…
Stock markets in India are presently trading marginally higher. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the metal sector and IT sector witnessing maximum buying interest. The BSE Sensex is trading up 87 points (up 0.3%) and the NSE Nifty is trading up 32 points (up 0.3%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.4%, while the BSE Small Cap index is…
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market rallied during the day on Wednesday, breaking out to the upside, clearing the $68 level. By making this fresh, new high, it looks like the market is going to continue to see buyers jumping in this market, and I believe that short-term pullbacks will be thought of…
The U.S. government’s 2017 fiscal year officially ended on 30 September 2017. At that time, we knew that the total public debt outstanding of the U.S. government increased by $671.5 billion from the end of the previous fiscal year, rising from $19,573 billion (or $19.6 trillion) to $20,245 billion (or $20.2 trillion) during FY2017. But what we didn’t know…
Gold prices advanced for a fourth straight session on Wednesday and settled at $1349.16 an ounce. XAU/USD initially pulled back to the bottom of the 4-hourly Ichimoku cloud but bounce up quite nicely from there and climbed back above the $1348-$1347 area. World stock markets were mostly higher again yesterday. Asia-Pacific stocks continue to rise…
The Aussie started the year on a bullish note, gaining by almost 4% against the dollar. It then started falling after weak economic data from Australia dampened the prospects of future rate hikes this year. On the other hand, the dollar has been supported, albeit slightly, by the hopes and indications that the Fed will…
The data always matters. Two weeks ago, the markets were swayed by more talk of a trade war with China. I should clarify by saying that the stock market was shaken, since the Treasury bond market reaction was fairly tempered. By Tuesday, most of the losses were recouped, and stocks were higher on Wednesday and again on Thursday. More saber-rattling over…
