This week it’s wage inflation, but with a particular twist. Utilizing the great indicators from the innovative economics team at the Atlanta Fed, I have built a new indicator which I call the “Stay or Go Indicator”. It is the difference between the annual wage growth figures for ‘Job Switchers’ vs ‘Job Stayers’. In short, it…
On Friday night, President Trump revealed that he had authorized U.S. armed forces to conduct precision military strikes on Syria. The attacks, conducted in unison with France and Britain, was a reprisal for the chemical attack ordered by the Assad regime on the rebel-held town of Duma on Apr 7. On Apr 14, Trump declared…
Retail sales were up according to US Census headline data. The unadjusted rolling averages rate of growth also improved. Analyst Opinion of Retail Sales Even though there is seen a significant improvement – it was a weak bounce back from the previous month’s solf reports. Things to consider when viewing this data: it is not…
Global silver scrap supply fell to its lowest level in 26 years. World silver recycling in 2017 dropped by nearly 50% since its peak in 2011. According to the 2018 World Silver Survey, global silver scrap supply declined to 138 million oz (Moz) compared to 261 Moz in 2011. While the lower silver price is…
The Russian ruble, Turkish lira, and Iranian rial are all falling in value. What do they have in common? The United States is in some way involved in their decline. It’s a sign of US power: Even as its military becomes more limited and it threatens to pull back from the Middle East and other…
Stocks opened higher on Monday as investors seem to think the U.S.-led air strikes on Syria won’t lead to a much larger conflict. The strikes also coincided with the real start of first-quarter earnings season, which investors should use as a way to fight off the volatility that has plagued markets recently. Earnings season kicked into gear…
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest…
LIBOR, or the London Interbank Offered Rate, was the most important acronym most investors never heard of before 2008. However, it quickly became the most critical variable in markets leading up to the Great Recession. What has now become clear is that we haven’t learned any lessons from the financial crisis except how to accumulate…
Hmmm. Things are looking less sanguine in bear-land. Although the SPY gap is still firmly intact, and has plenty of cushion left: The Dow Industrials DIA has broken its descending trendline and exceeded its gap. Worrisome!
(Audio length 00:10:49) Doc joins me today to shares his thoughts on the US markets and the USD. With daily volatility but no major breakouts in either direction, there are some levels we expect before the next bigger move. For the USD it continues to look weak but trade in a tighter range. Sounds like…
