In June 2008, ICAP actually launched a US-based alternative to LIBOR. It ended up as nothing more than one very minor footnote lost in a sea of more pressing problems and events. Still, that they even tried is somewhat significant and relevant to today. Before the whole cheating scandal came out, there were questions surrounding…
Technology sector has been the cynosure of all eyes, both for bad and good reasons, in the first quarter of 2018. The sector received a lot of flak over a number of issues including Facebook’s data fiasco, Apple’s iPhone-battery slowdown and President Trump’s tariff imposition on Chinese imports. The hallowed FAANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple,…
Stories about the death of the bond market have been circulating since 1992. Every one of them has been wrong. Deflationary Period Over? At Mauldin’s latest conference, Gavekal’s Louis-Vincent Gave stated: “The deflationary period we’ve been in has come to an end.” He produced this chart. As told through the words of Steve Blumenthal ……
Gold prices fell $17.75 an ounce yesterday, erasing the gains made in the previous session, as the dollar and stocks gained after U.S. President Donald Trump backtracked on his suggestion of an imminent missile attack on Syria, which could lead to wider conflict between Washington and Moscow. XAU/USD extended its losses and returned to the…
Some of our pressing current challenges seem self-inflicted. The UK decision to leave the EU was not compelled by external circumstances. A non-binding referendum that won by 52% to 48% was taken to be a binding decision to break a 45-year old treaty. From before the end of WWII through 2016, the US sought to create…
USD/JPY 4 hour The USD/JPY is in a mild bullish channel which is testing key Fibonacci resistance levels. These Fib levels are a key break or bounce spot: a bullish break makes a wave 4 unlikely whereas a bearish break could indicate a continuation of the downtrend. The bullish pressure could see price make one…
We are now all good and focused on the fact that inflation is headed higher. As I’ve pointed out before, part of this is an illusion of motion caused by base effects: not just cell phones, but various other effects that caused measured inflation in the US to appear lower than the underlying trend because…
Economic activity as measured by IHS Markit’s Purchase Managers Index showed a broad-based decline across the manufacturing, construction and services sector in the UK during the month of March. Combined, the ‘all sector PMI’ that measures all three sectors was seen sliding to a 20-month low in the month of March and including weaker pace…
I recently ran across a terrific chart in Grant’s Interest Rate Observer that got me thinking about Hyman Minsky and The Financial Instability Hypothesis. After remaining relatively unknown during the course of his lifetime, Minsky really came to fame in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis as his hypothesis helped to explain what left most economists baffled:…
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market initially pulled back during trading on Thursday but found enough support near the $66 level to turn around and form a bit of a hammer. The hammer, of course, is a very bullish sign, and the fact that we are starting to rally from the $66 level…
