Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs…
Can a group of stocks be any more resilient than the FANG type stocks? It seems like any time the stocks in this group have their backs against the ropes, they come bouncing back.It happened again this week when what was looking like a pretty poor week for the group quickly turned around. Adding even…
Lower US & S. American outputs can tighten both old & new crop stocks Market Analysis Corn’s main focus has switched to the US planting season after the March 29 planting intentions survey. This report’s larger-than-expected 2.14 million acre drop in US seedings and April’s near record average cold temperatures across the eastern 2/3rds of…
Rents in all unit sizes picked up steam in April. Among the largest cities, Las Vegas, Denver, and Detroit led the pack. The Rent Cafe’s Monthly Rent Report for the 250 largest US cities shows a 3.2% Y-o-Y surge. The national average rent in April clocked in at $1,377. This marks the highest annual growth rate since the…
Bonds are an interesting financial animal. With stocks, investors become part owners of a company, albeit usually at a very, very small level. We benefit as the company earns more revenue and profit, hopefully sending some of the cash back to us in the form of dividends, or using the funds to grow the company or,…
The U.S. dollar fails to benefit from the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as the updates fall short of market expectations, with USD/JPY at risk for a larger pullback as a bearish series takes shape. Looking ahead, attention turns to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision on tap for May 10 as Governor Adrian…
Week 17 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis for carloads, this week it expanded…
In interviews, whenever I try to make the case that US policies are leading to the kinds of currency disruptions common in developing countries, I say something like, “For a glimpse of America’s future, take a look at Argentina, where they’re eating cats and dogs because of hyperinflation … wait, no, I meant Venezuela.” Mixing…
While most hedge fund managers and investors were skeptical about the direction of the stock market after Trump’s shocking election victory, a few bet it all on green. One was Carl Icahn, another was Dan Loeb, and with the S&P surging by over 30% since the Trump victory, investors in Dan Loeb’s Third Point reaped…
As brutal as this day has been, the big picture still hasn’t changed: lower lows, lower highs, and a general downtrend (although, God almighty, I am really sick and tired of all these “fight backs” the bulls are pulling off). For a little perspective on this, here is the triple-bullish on financials fund, symbol FAS, on which I own January 2019 puts….
