EM FX ended Friday on a weak note and capped off another generally negative week. The worst performers last week were ARS, BRL, and TRY while the best were ZAR, RUB, and KRW. We remain negative on EM FX and look for losses to continue. US retail sales data Tuesday poses further downside risks to EM FX. India reports…
This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results: Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over…
The price of oil is rising, which is obviously good news for those who sell it to the rest of us. Russia in particular seems to be enjoying the current trend, so much so that Moscow is now receiving more in taxes than it’s spending. This is producing something called a “budget surplus,” which is…
eBay Inc. EBAY announced plans to sell its stake in the Indian e-commerce giant, Flipkart to Walmart WMT to relaunch eBay India. The move will bolster eBay’s presence in India. Last year, eBay invested $500 million in Flipkart to acquire 5.4% stake in Flipkart by vending its Indian division. eBay had licensed Flipkart to use its brand name. The company…
USD/CAD failed to breakout of 1.3124 resistance and pulled back from 1.2997. A further decline would likely be seen over the next several weeks and the target would be at the bottom support trend line of the price channel on the daily chart. Resistance is at 1.2997, only a break above this level could trigger…
A relatively reliable measure of complacency/euphoria in the stock market just hit levels last seen in late January, just before stocks reversed in a massive meltdown, surprising all the complacent/euphoric Bulls. Fortunately for Bulls, none of this matters. The measure is the put-call ratio in equities. Since this time is different, and the market is guaranteed to…
Some folks are concerned about the possibility that Donald Trump’s (probably) ill-advised decision to exit the Iran nuclear deal is going to stoke inflation on the back of surging crude prices. Oil at three-and-a-half-year highs is set against late-cycle fiscal stimulus in the U.S. and the prospect of tariff-related price pressures. Clearly, the question is whether all of…
The natural gas market rallied during the week. On Friday it closed at $2.80, 3.80% higher than the week before. Natural gas remains 18% lower than a year ago. Thursday’s U.S. storage report had a positive effect as withdrawals were higher than expected. However, having reached a crucial resistance level, we will be looking to…
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: NEUTRAL Talking Points: New Zealand Dollar depreciated as RBNZ pushed out inflation and rate change forecasts NZD may be at risk of continuing to lose its yield advantage vs. USD on Fed commentary NZD/USD Client Positioning warns prices may turn higher. Profits could also be booked The RBNZ certainly left its mark on the New Zealand Dollar last…
Trump says in a Tweet that he is working with the Chinese president to keep struggling company ZTE in business. President Xi of China, and I, are working together to give massive Chinese phone company, ZTE, a way to get back into business, fast. Too many jobs in China lost. Commerce Department has been instructed…
