Monthly Archives: May 2018

European Citi Surprise Index Is -100.1

Indexes For This Cycle The Citi Economic Surprise Index is like the CNN Fear and Greed Index in that I usually disagree with its assertions. They are both overly sensitive to changes in the market. I may be biased when reviewing these data points because I always compare the extremes with the financial crisis. For…

Some Economic Effects Of US Import Restraints

With all the controversies over the US imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum (discussed here and here, for example), it’s perhaps useful to consider an overview of what import restraints the US economy already has in place, and what effects they have had. Every three or four years, the US International Trade Commission publishes a report called: “The…

EIA Data Reintroduces Natural Gas Volatility

After a period of very slow trading, the prompt month natural gas contract saw a trading range of 11.1 cents today, its largest since February 21st. Trading ranges had been historically low recently as the market coiled, with today’s move now fitting right in with past years.  Prices initially traded lower only to then shoot…

What The EPS? EM Vs. DM Earnings Outlook

This week we look at the earnings outlook for emerging markets (EM) and developed markets (DM) – on both fronts I am specifically using the MSCI indexes, i.e. the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and the MSCI World Index (as distinct from the MSCI ACWI). For the consensus earnings estimates I am using the Thomson Reuters…