More geopolitical turmoil is probably not what the doctor ordered for markets on a day when Trump’s decision on the Iran deal is on deck, but you know what they say about “when it rains”. As Barclays recently noted, the geopolitical environment “is littered with a historically large number – by one measure, the highest since…
The Fed turns neither hawkish nor dovish. It turns symmetric! What does it mean for the gold market? Fed Pauses in May In line with expectations, after an upward move in March to a range of 1.5-1.75 percent, the U.S. central bank unanimously left the federal funds rate unchanged at its recent meeting in May: In view of realized…
Several months ago, I started toying with a simple model of interest rates and job growth.* Based on the historical evidence, I suggested that: 1. a YoY increase in the Fed funds rate equal to the YoY% change in job growth has in the past almost infallibly been correlated with a recession within roughly 12 months. …
Indian share markets ended the day on a flat note. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex finished higher by 8 points. While, the NSE Nifty finished up by 2 points. Meanwhile, the S&P BSE Midcap Index ended down by 0.1% while S&P BSE Small Cap Index ended up by 0.1%. Sectoral indices ended the day on a mixed note with bank stocks and realty stocks leading the…
Traditional Markets The US markets were performing fairly well yesterday until about an hour before the closing bell when President Donald Trump sent this tweet… Most were already expecting this to happen, so it’s not clear why the markets took the news so poorly. In this graph, you can see the exact minute of the tweet circled…
Overnight Markets And News Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM18 -0.32%) this morning are down -0.34% and European stocks are down -0.58% as Jun WTI crude oil (CLM18 -1.23%) falls -1.34% before President Trump’s decision on the Iran nuclear deal. President Trump said he will announce his decision at 1400 EST today on whether the U.S. will reimpose sanctions…
Australia’s retail sector failed to sustain growth in March after better than expected sales number in February. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), retail sales were flat in the month, below the 0.2 percent projected by economists. Suggesting that the 0.6 percent recorded in February might be as a result of the surge in…
EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD is unable the break above the resistance lines (orange and red) of the downtrend channel. A bearish continuation could send price lower towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 (blue) around 1.17-1.18. A bullish breakout above the resistance zone could indicate a bigger retracement to the Fibonacci levels of wave…
For the first time in eight months, inflation-adjusted base money (aka M0) in the US contracted in March, slipping 3.7% vs. the year-ago level. The slide comes at a time when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is emphasizing that markets should be expecting gradual interest rate increases in the months ahead. “Markets should not be surprised…
The EUR/USD has hit fresh 2018 lows below $1.1900 as the US Dollar continues marching forward. The potential pullout of Trump from the Iran deal is casting clouds on markets. The pair is at oversold territory, but the “vomiting camel” pattern seems to be taking over. The EUR/USD is trading below $1.1900, the lowest since the last…
