The USD/CAD had a relatively stable week amid mixed USD moves and upbeat Canadian GDP. The Canadian jobs report and US inflation are the biggest market movers. The technical picture for the USD/CAD is balanced. Mixed USD moves, still no NAFTA Canada enjoyed a monthly growth rate of 0.4%, better than had been expected. This is a…
As described in the latest “Stock Index Cycle & Trend Momentum Report,” our projection for the SPX this week is for it to rise to 2700-2709 before ultimately rolling over. This will be followed by a period of risk that will continue into the second half of May. As we explained in our Big Picture…
FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR GBP: NEUTRAL NEXT WEEK’S RANGE: 1.3420-1.3770 GBPUSD Analysis and Talking Points: Underlying UK Economy weak as UK PMI Surveys Show Marginal Rebound May Rate Hike is Off the Table but What About August? A Hawkish Hold Could Provide GBPUSD a Mild Recovery GBPUSD SLIPS AMID WEAK UNDERLYING ECONOMY Recent UK PMI surveys failed to…
I was right to be bearish last week…until the very last day when all at once the market reversed almost all its accumulated worries. The S&P 500 (SPY) bounced back from yet another test of still uptrending 200DMA support. Friday’s 1.3% gain put it within yet another encounter with downtrending resistance from its 50DMA. The 1.7%…
VIX tagged the 10-handle on Friday morning as the Commercials staged a raid on the long Speculators. It only took a few minutes, but it suggests a lot of shares traded hands as the computers hunted down and took out the stops. Re-crossing the Intermediate-term resistance at 17.38 confirms the VIX buy signal. (Bloomberg) Cboe…
Birth rates are plunging almost everywhere. The first chart below shows that even notoriously populous China and India have entered the same reproductive neighborhood as the US and are not that far from the assisted living center formerly known as Japan. Which is to say their populations have not only stopped increasing, they’ll actually start…
AUDUSD broke below 0.7501 support and extended its downside movement from 0.8135 to as low as 0.7472. A further decline is still possible after a minor consolidation and next target would be at 0.7350 area. Near term resistance is at 0.7590, only a breakout of this level could bring the price back towards the falling…
EM FX came under intense selling pressures last week. The worst performers were ARS, TRY, and MXN while the best were PHP, KRW, and TWD. US rates are likely to remain the key driver for EM FX, and so PPI and CPI data will be closely watched this week. We believe EM FX will remain…
I am building out simple but effective trading models that combine fundamental analysis with technical analysis. Right now I am trying to combine two models into one model that’s more effective (combining the Golden/Death Cross model and the Golden/Death Cross model). I previously did a study which concluded that the Death Cross isn’t consistently bearish for the stock market….
These are the highlights of the May 5, 2018 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting. Warren Buffett, 87, and Charlie Munger, 94, responded to shareholder questions during the five hour meeting. A record number of 42,000 shareholders attended. In opening comments, Warren Buffett mentioned that $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 in March 1942 would be worth…
