This morning's employment report for March showed a 103K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was worse than forecasts. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The Investing.com consensus was for 193K new jobs and the unemployment rate to drop to 4.0%.

Here is an excerpt from the Employment Situation Summary released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the u.s. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in manufacturing, health care, and mining.

Here is a snapshot of the monthly percent change in Nonfarm Employment since 2000. We've added a 12-month moving average to highlight the long-term trend.

Now let's take a look at the unemployment rate as a recession indicator or more specifically the cyclical troughs in the UR as a recession indicator. The next chart features a 12-month moving average of the UR with the troughs highlighted. As the inset table shows, the correlation between the MA troughs and recession starts is remarkably close.

We've added another chart to illustrate the reality of the unemployment rate – the unemployment rate divided by the labor force participation rate.

The next chart shows the unemployment rate for the civilian population unemployed 27 weeks and over. This rate has fallen significantly since its 4.4% all-time peak in April 2010. It is now at 0.8%, unchanged from the previous month.