Stocks Impact Carryovers, But U.S. Plantings; Tariffs Impact Prices

Market Analysis

As previously reported, corn's March 1 stocks were 182 million bu. above expectations. This suggests a possible underestimate of 2017 harvest has occurred. This is handled as a reduction in corn's feed and residual demand by a likely 100 million decrease to 5.450 billion. This week's February ethanol corn grind was 434 million bu. bringing this year's 2nd

Soybeans' 77 million bu. higher-stocks-than-the-trade average remains a head scratchier. March's decline in bean's residual from 197 million after a hectic export season seems quite logical. Despite Argentine (47 to 41) and Brazilian (113 to 116 mmt) crop changes, no export or stock changes are expected after 25% China import tariff.

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