Note: We've updated this commentary with data through Tuesday's market close.

Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended Tuesday at 2.79% and the 30-year bond closed at 3.02%. The 2-10 yield spread is now at 0.51%.

Here is a table showing the yields highs and lows and the FFR since 2007 as of Tuesday's close.

The chart below shows the daily performance of several Treasuries and the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) since the pre-recession days of equity market peaks in 2007.

A Long-Term Look at the 10-Year Note Yield

The dashed lines on the chart above were provided by Bob Bronson of Bronson Capital Markets Research. Bob comments:

“The blue dashed lines are much more closely parallel to the all-data, log-linear best fit line — very similar to the high-low mid-channel line — since 1980. Then there is the even more currently relevant downtrend (black dashed line) since the 2007 high.”

We saw a failed breakout of the downtrend at the time in December of 2013 and a new breakout has been underway, requiring a readjustment of the red upper trend line.

The 30-Year Fixed Rate mortgage

The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey puts the 30-year fixed at 4.44%. Here is a long look back, courtesy of a FRED graph, of the 30-year fixed rate mortgage average, which began in April of 1971.