Earnings Estimates Improve The Most In At Least 21 Years

As I mentioned, the earnings estimates usually fall in this period leading up to the beginning of the year. The chart below shows the historical change in earnings estimates from December 20th to January 11th. It captures the period when they increased because of the tax cut passing. As you can see, they fell 17 years and rose 4 years. The highest increase was less than 0.5%, while this year estimates are up 2.2% from $146.83 to $150.12. It's difficult to determine exactly which analysts, who updated their numbers recently, included the impact of the tax cut. The best way to determine if $150.12 is a good estimate is to come up with your own. One key indicator, which might signal earnings estimates are about to move higher in the next month, is that only 40% of analysts have confirmed or revised their 2018 earnings estimates for the firms in the Dow since December 20th.