“Over the previous 15 years (2002-2016), the average difference between the bottom-up target price estimate at the beginning of the year (December 31) and the final price for the index for that same year has been 13.0%. In other words, industry analysts on average have overestimated the final price of the index by about 13.0% one year in advance during the previous 15 years.”
Turning our focus to the short-term, it is the week before the Christmas holiday, which has the market closed next Monday. Even so, we have all of 9 trading days left until we close the current quarter, which means that before the holiday and despite all the last minute holiday shopping to be done, we still have several companies reporting earnings and a number of economic data points that will factor into determining GDP for the current quarter.Unlike the last few weeks, there are no major investor conferences to be had, and odds are they will remain scant until after 4Q 2017 earnings season.
Now, let's take a closer look at what's on tap this week.
On the Economic Front
If you remember, last week's Monday Morning Kickoff was titled, “Big Week Ahead Could Either Firm Up, Or Tear Down GDP Forecasts.” As we glance in the rear view mirror that was last week we saw there was indeed some movement in the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow 4Q 2017 forecast.
