The headlines say the durable goods new orders improved. This series has been in a general downtrend since seen since November 2014. The three month rolling average is continuing to decline and is in contraction. Note that the headline “improvement” is on the back of a downwardly revised previous month data.

 

Econintersect Analysis:

unadjusted new orders growth accelerated 5.3% (after decelerating a downwardly revised 3.2 % the previous month) month-over-month , and is down 0.6 % year-over-year.

the three month rolling average for unadjusted new orders decelerated 0.4% month-over-month, and down 3.1% year-over-year.

Year-over-Year Change of 3 Month Rolling Average – Unadjusted (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted (red line)

 

Inflation adjusted but otherwise unadjusted new orders are down 1.9% year-over-year.

The federal reserve's Durable Goods Industrial Production Index (seasonally adjusted) growth decelerated 0.3% month-over-month, up 1.7% year-over-year [note that this is a series with moderate backward revision – and it uses production as a pulse point (not new orders or shipments)] – three month trend is decelerating, and has been decelerating for a year..

Comparing Seasonally Adjusted Durable Goods Shipments (blue line) to Industrial Production Durable Goods (red line)

unadjusted backlog (unfilled orders) growth decelerated 0.9% month-over-month, up 4.7% year-over-year.

according to the seasonally adjusted data, it was civilian aircraft which accounted for the strength this month.

note this is labelled as an advance report – however, backward revisions historically are relatively slight.

Census Headlines:

new orders increased 3.4% month-over-month.

backlog (unfilled orders) increased 0.1% month-over-month.

the market expected (from Bloomberg):

  Consensus Range Consensus Actual New Orders – M/M change 0.6 % to 6.4 % +3.1 % +3.4 % Ex-transportation – M/M 0.0 % to 1.0 % +0.5 % +0.8 %