On Tuesday, oil closed higher as there is an expectation that U.S. stockpiles are heading lower. There was news that the wildfires in Canada are now targeting a new oil supply line, which should boost oil prices. U.S. crude oil closed up 1.2% to $48.31 a barrel, which is the best level it has seen since October of 2015. Brent Crude finished up by 0.7% to $49.58 a barrel. Even the Nigerian and Venezuelan outages gave rise to higher oil prices.

U.S. Oil Output Declines Continue

The U.S. government's forecast, posted on May 16, suggests that U.S. shale output is expected to fall in June. Typically oil sometimes sees a rebound in supply, but not this time because this will be the eighth consecutive month where oil output has dropped. There are two sides to this equation. On the one hand, a decline in supply is seen as being bullish, thus why oil prices went higher. But on the opposite end, that means that oil producers aren't producing as much oil as they use to because demand is lacking. According According According According According According on May 16, total output is expected to fall by 113,000 barrels per day. This would bring total output down to 4.85 million barrels per day.

Breakdown of oil output decline:

Anyway you slice the data, a drop in output of this caliber is a bullish for the price of oil. Oil prices have taken a dive since 2014, falling by more than 60% from their highs because of too much supply in the market. While a drop in supply boosts the price of oil, it is bad for the economy. Oil producers had to lay off thousands of employees, and cut spending by a huge margin.

Fort McMurray Trouble Still Looms

A few weeks back, many workers from oil fields were evacuated by a wildfire which grew out of control in Canada. More specifically the fire hit Fort McMurray which is a huge oil producing center for the country. Now, the fire seems to be heading back in the direction direction direction direction, and most were told to evacuate. At least 4,000 people have evacuated the area, and another 8,000 people received precautionary evacuation orders. How exactly is a fire, and the evacuation of Fort McMurray bullish for the oil market? This is because the oil center produces up to 2.3 million barrels of oil per day. Any disruption in such a large amount of supply, causes oil prices to spike higher in the short-term. Officials in Canada state that the fire should burn for at least a few more weeks. Once it is all clear, residents along with workers should be able to make their way back to Fort McMurray. As mentioned before this is a short-term drop in supply, and once the oil center gets back online then expect it to have a huge impact on oil prices thereafter.