5 Things To Ponder: What This Way Cometh

Well, it has been an interesting start to a New Year.  As I penned yesterday:

“Since the end of the 's latest QE program, market volatility has picked up markedly. Since October, as QE came to its final bond buying conclusion, the drain of liquidity begin to financial market activity. As shown in the chart below, there have been three fairly sizable selloffs last quarter of 7.9%, 5.0%, and 4.3%.”

VIX-SP500-010815-2

“Not surprisingly, those selloffs gave birth to sharp spikes in volatility of 118%, 99% and 46.9% currently.

Since the beginning of QE-3, at the end of 2012, the financial markets have been on a seemingly unstoppable rise. While virtually 100% of all economists, analysts, and financial bloggers are currently expecting a continuous rise in asset prices for several more years, the one constant has been a steady decline in volatility. The lack of “fear” in the financial markets has been the “sirens song”for investors to step up to the casino table and place their bets in a seemingly“can't lose” bet. Each dip has now taught investors that such moments are fleeting, and those declines are best ignored. That is a dangerous lesson, to say the least, as things may now be changing.”

What I find most interesting is that there is very little concern that something could negatively impact the markets. In fact, if anything would actually happen, it will just be a mild 10-15% correction. The problem is that historically, such outcomes have only been found in “rarified air.” Could this time be different? Sure, anything is possible. However, as an investor my primary concern should be the protection of my limited investment capital against unmitigated destruction.

However, this week's reading list is a smattering of reads about 2015. As a contrarian investor by nature, it was interesting to note how hard it was to find views that were NOT bullishly biased. It seems we may have now entered a market realm where Unicorns and Bears are only things of legend.

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