2016 has started with container counts showing expansion – a better showing than what was seen in 2015. Imports had the best January since 2007, but the export improvement was only relative to the terrible 2015 levels. This series is a physical count and not monetary based – so inflation adjustments are not required.
This data set is based on the Ports of LA and Long Beach which account for much (approximately 40%) of the container movement into and out of the United States – and these two ports report their data significantly earlier than other USA ports. Most of the manufactured goods move between countries in sea containers (except larger rolling items such as automobiles). This pulse point is an early indicator of the health of the economy.
There is no question that the trend lines had been generally improving (even though exports were showing negative growth year-over-year in 2015). So in this sense, the current data is showing improvement. But also consider that growth is being compared to a relatively dismal 2015 for trade. Bottom line, at this point it seems trade is beginning to recover which could signal some economic improvement months from now.
Consider that imports final sales are added to GDP usually several months after import – while the import cost itself is subtracted from GDP in the month of import. Export final sales occur around the date of export. Container counts do not include bulk commodities such as oil or autos which are not shipped in containers. For this month:
As the data is very noisy – the best way to look at this data is the 3 month rolling averages. There is a direct linkage between imports and USA economic activity – and the change in growth in imports foretells real change in economic growth. Export growth is an indicator of competitiveness and global economic growth.
