Gold & Silver Are Surging On Heavy Volume

Hedgies are the most short ever… and Commercials are the least hedged in 14 years… and it appears rumors of PBOC buying along with dismal data from around the world has sparked a renewed awareness of another looming QE sending gold well north of $1100 and silver back above $15. Hedge funds aggregate net position has been short for the first time in history.

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Commercial Hedgers are holding the lowest net short position in gold futures since the launch of the gold bull market in 2001.

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And this happened… Silver looking for $15.44 (50DMA) as next test

As Bonner & Partners recently noted, the next silver bull market may have already started

Silver is down 7.1% this year.

Will this weakness persist? To find out, let's look at the key factors in the silver market this year.

  • Like gold, silver fell as the rose on the back of expectations that the Fed will hike rates.
  • World demand for physical silver fell 4% in 2014, largely due to a record 19.5% drop in investment demand.
  • Silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) did not see big liquidations in 2014. ETF holdings grew by 1.4 million ounces and recorded their highest year-end level at 636 million ounces.
  • The first two factors helped push silver 19.9% lower last year. That's more than gold or any other precious metal fell. Despite this, silver production rose 5% in 2014. That added to the pressure on prices.

    Why did miners produce more silver when prices were falling? Because of:

  • By-product metal. Around 75% of the silver mined is a by-product at gold or base metal mines. These producers will keep mining silver, almost regardless of price.
  • Reduced cash costs. The primary silver producers have cut costs since they peaked in 2012. The main way miners do that is by boosting production to achieve economies of scale.
  • Bull market hangover. Precious metals were in a major bull market from 2001 to 2011. Producers built a lot of mines in response. Nobody wants to pull the plug on a new mine that's losing money if they think prices will go higher.
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