The u.s. dollar index (USDX) remains stuck in its downtrend by a thread.

The U.S. dollar index has made three attempts in a row to breakout from its short-term downtrend and each time failed by the close of trading.

Source: FreeStockCharts.com

The long-awaited catalyst was the U.S. jobs report for July, 2015. In my opinion, the report shed no new light on the timing for a Fed rate hike. It was pretty much more of the same. The stalemate on the U.S. dollar seems to underline my assessment. My trading strategy for the U.S. dollar thus remains the same as I continue to make many short-term bets that do not over-extend their stays.

The odds for the timing of the first Fed rate hike decreased across all months in reaction to the jobs report. Note that the CME Group has decided to drop calculating odds for the nearest meeting month. The odds were zero for a long time, and I suspect they are still the same. We at least know the odds are no higher than October's odds. I continue to scratch my head over the numerous analysts and pundits who still cling to a September rate hike narrative. For example, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Michael Hanson believes not only is the Fed “more likely than not” to raise in September but also the July jobs numbers nudged the odds even more in favor of a September hike. The video clip  from Friday's Nightly Business Report starts with Hanson's commentary at the 3:49 point (the show also begins with a good summary of the jobs numbers):

Video length: 00:26:46

The Fed is not in the business of delivering negative surprises for the market, so I remain extremely skeptical that these analysts and pundits have some insight that is better than the collective insight of the market where real money is on the line.

Futures markets retreat a bit on the odds for the first Fed rate hike in the wake of the July jobs report

Source for data: CME Group Fedwatch