A week ago, stocks were only toying with the idea of a break above some major resistance levels. As of the end of last week, they punched through that ceiling.

It was a tepid effort, and so far hasn't attracted any meaningful follow-through. The volume behind the move has been pretty pathetic too. We're also at a time of year that's less-than-stellar for stocks. Nevertheless, we've got to respect how well the market's overcome the odds thus far. We're still not entirely convinced there's enough healthy momentum to actually make a big bet on stocks though.

We'll dissect it all below, but first let's run through last week's and this week's economic announcements.

Economic Data

Last week's economic data dance card may have felt pretty full in terms of the length of the list/calendar, but there were only two big themes. One of them was a look at last month's inflation. We're seeing some, but as has been the case for a while, it's under control. The overall inflation rate now stands at 2.46%, but stripping out volatile food and energy prices doesn't change the fact that inflation is healthy, but not debilitating.

Inflation Rate (Annualized) Charts

Source: Thomson Reuters

That being said, the modest rise in inflation seems to be picking up again. If this persists like we've seen the past couple of months, the Fed will have little choice but to go ahead and impose the three to four rate hikes the market is betting on this year.

The only other graphic we want to look at this week is crude inventory levels, if only because we haven't in a while. Of course, it's prescient that we do anyway in light of the fact that President Trump is likely to impose new sanctions on Iran, which could impact the global supply.

If that's going to be an actual problem though, it's going to have to overcome a rising supply. And, bear in mind that once an oil supply trend starts to take shape, it can remain in motion for quite some time.