Listen, there's a lot of debate going on right now about late-cycle dynamics.

Chief among market participants' concerns is the flattening curve, which some folks contend is trying to warn us that a recession is lurking in a dark alley a couple of blocks up the street, just waiting on us to walk by so it can reach out and grab us.

And if all you're looking at is the curve, well then I suppose there's cause for concern. After all, the 5s30s touched 26bps this week following the CPI miss and a strong 30Y auction.

(BBG)

But that's probably not all you should be looking at, and although predicting recessions is almost by definition an exercise in futility (if you could predict them accurately then you would presumably be able to avoid them), a look across a bunch of models suggests the probability is low, at least in the near-term. Here's a smattering of charts:

(Clockwise from upper left: Deutsche, Goldman, BofAML)

Additionally, Wells Fargo really wants you to remember that “we're late in the cycle” doesn't count as “research”:

Investors realizing ‘We're late in the Cycle' is not Research. A year ago investors were told we're late in the cycle. Two years ago investors heard the same proclamation as well as three. We think individuals are realizing that's not research; it's an observation.

And look, maybe the main problem here when it comes to drawing conclusions and making predictions about the trajectory of the economy is that we're asking the wrong people or, more to the point, that we're asking “people” at all. Maybe we should be asking this “guy”:

He looks friendly, what does he think?

Well BofAML is going to ask him. In a note dated Thursday, the bank makes what they call “a first attempt to combine macro analysis and machine learning in understanding markets.” Call it “first contact” with Elon Musk's “immortal robot dictator,” on the subject of macro.