Cattle futures, both fats and feeders finished limit down today. The catalyst was sinking wholesale beef prices.
Support in the April lies about 100 – 125 points lower than its settlement.
The hogs looked as if they were going to stabilize today as the Junes were up over 100 points at one time during the session until the cattle fell apart, pulling them down off their best levels.
Soybeans did retreat further from overhead resistance at $9.20 CLOSING below the 10 day moving average for the first time in a month. Next support is the 20 day about three cents below today's close near $9.02.
This is more of the same as I wrote in yesterday's post – traders are becoming more convinced that we are going to see farmers shifting acreage FROM corn TO beans on account of both the price differential which currently favors beans, and the wetness in the Delta.
Crude oil looks like it might be trying to stabilize here. Considering the fact that all of the commodity currencies were hit with selling pressure today, and the fact that the US Dollar was stronger, it is noteworthy that oil did not fall apart.
It is hovering around the 100 day moving average. If it loses that, the rising 50 day is about $1.50/barrel below that near $34.34.
I believe it is still trying to carve out a new and higher trading range and am thus watching for a bottom to form. We know the top is up at $42.
The long bond is back to going beserk to the upside. It is back above the median line of the Bollinger Bands, which are also widening out once more. I cannot bring myself to buy bonds at these levels but every time I try shorting time, they end up chasing me back out.
As far as the techincals go, they are all agreeing in a bullish stance. I am going to leave that to braver traders than myself. Maybe one of these days, by the time I am so old I cannot string two coherent sentences together or even find the “enter” button to place a trade, they will give off a strong sell signal which we can ride into retirement. Like I said, it won't do me any good at that point unless it will be to pay the death tax on any profits to the government.
